近幾年，中國本土的拍賣公司崛起，它們屢屢在藝術品的成交價上刷下新的紀錄，總銷售額的排名更是穩踞前幾名的寶座，鋒芒直逼蘇富比與佳士德。本論文意在比較中國境內國外與國內本土經營之拍賣公司，在成交價上之表現差異。本研究彙整了在2010年到2012年間，從中國頂尖七家拍賣公司所交易的油畫與壓克力畫作，以特徵迴歸（Hedonic Regression）為基礎，做一系列的分析。本文探討了兩種樣本選擇的可能，一是由未賣出的畫作所造成的樣本選擇效果（Observational Selection Effect），二是由於畫作原持有人存在對拍賣公司的特定選擇效果所帶來之潛在內生性。在本文中，赫克曼選擇模型（Heckman Selection Model）被用來修正是否售出的樣本選擇效果，工具變數法（Instrumental Variable Method）與傾向分數匹配（Propensity Score Matching）則被用來控制內生性。研究結果指出，無論是否有控制樣本選擇效果，國外拍賣公司在成交價上平均超出國內本土拍賣公司約30%。而在應用傾向分數匹配後，成交價上的差距擴大到38%。隨機邊界分析（Stochastic Frontier Analysis）則被當成另一衡量拍賣公司表現的工具，用來捕捉當拍賣品的估價給定時，每家拍賣公司對於最終成交價之上跳能力。結果顯示國外拍賣公司依然有更好的能力讓拍賣品競標到更高的價格。本研究最後歸納兩個重點：一是在研究裡，考量拍賣品原持有人對於拍賣公司間存在選擇效果的重要性，二則是國外拍賣公司在成交價及上跳能力的表現明顯勝過中國本土拍賣公司。;The purpose of this paper is to measure the performance difference between domestic and foreign-owned auction houses in China in terms of hammer prices. We analyzed it by collecting oil and acrylic paintings which were traded at top seven houses of China from 2010 to 2012. Heckman selection model was used to correct observational selection due to unsold items. Instrumental variable method and propensity score methods were employed to cope with potential endogeneity of house selection. The findings showed that foreign houses outperform domestic houses on average approximately 30% of hammer prices before or after observational selection correction. Moreover, the difference between two subjects widened into 38% after applying propensity score methods. Stochastic frontier analysis served as an alternative approach to measure the ability to pump the final prices when pre-auction estimates are given. The results revealed that foreign houses also have better power to make lots bid up into a higher level. The study proposes the importance of considering house selection issue when analyzing house performance. Also, it concludes that foreign houses outperform Chinese domestic houses both in hammer prices and efficiency.
