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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ir.lib.ncu.edu.tw/handle/987654321/69463

    Title: 捷運通車對大台北地區交通事故影響之實證研究-以土城捷運通車為例;An Empirical Study Of The Effect of MRT Opening Toward Traffic Accident In Greater Taipei Area – A case of MRT Tucheng Line
    Authors: 湯愷檸;Tang,Kai-Ning
    Contributors: 產業經濟研究所
    Keywords: 捷運;交通事故;負二項;差異法;Probit;MRT;traffic incidents;Probit;Negative Binomial Regression Model;Difference in Difference
    Date: 2016-01-27
    Issue Date: 2016-03-17 20:42:16 (UTC+8)
    Publisher: 國立中央大學
    Abstract: 本研究旨在探討新增一條捷運線對大台北地區特定車種(機車或汽車)之交通事故影響,並探討此三項交通工具之關聯性。本文使用民國93年至97年大台北地區A1、A2類道路交通事故調查表資料進行實證研究,並藉由控制相關變數,以期能更全面了解肇事率及死傷情形之影響因子。
    ;The research is to discuss the effect of adding a new MRT line towards Greater Taipei Area and its traffic incidents of motorcycles and vehicles. This dissertation is meant to further discuss and dissects the co-relations of these three types of transportations. This thesis use the data of Greater Taipei Areas’ type A1, A2 traffic accidents from the year 2004 to 2008 to provide full database figures with the independent variables in order to fully discuss the crash rate and the casualties factors.
    The dissertation uses probit regression model and negative binomial regression model as based models and further analysis the difference-in-difference towards the before and after effects of the new Tucheng MRT’s operation with New Taipei Districts’ traffic incidents rates. As a result, the thesis has found the vehicle related traffic incidents rate and casualties have decreased. However, the motorcycle related incident rates and the casualties have increased. The mobility and the convenience of motorcycle is irreplaceable by MRT thus the growth of the motorcycle quantity is inevitable. With the growing rate of motorcycle to vehicle incidents, the other factor such as, DUI (drink under influence) do consist the define effect cause by the blurry line of vision, and dull reflex. The increase of gasoline price leads to the negative significant to vehicle crash rate and casualties, though it illustrate the positive significant of motorcycle. It provides the positive relation of the two type of substitutable transportation type.
    Appears in Collections:[產業經濟研究所] 博碩士論文

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