氣候變遷對台南地區水資源衝擊與調適路徑探討;Adaption measures to climate change impact on water resource in Tainan

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题名:	氣候變遷對台南地區水資源衝擊與調適路徑探討;Adaption measures to climate change impact on water resource in Tainan
作者:	陳泊任;Chen,Po-Jen
贡献者:	土木工程學系
关键词:	氣候變遷;缺水指標;脆弱度;調適路徑;climate change;shortage index;vulnerability;adaptation measures
日期:	2016-07-22
上传时间:	2016-10-13 12:07:58 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	台灣地區位於亞熱帶氣候，年雨量達2500公釐，但因降雨量時間分佈不均，多集中於豐水期，造成枯水期可利用水量相對偏少，因此需靠水資源系統管理，使用水達到穩定。而在氣候變遷影響下，極端降雨與乾枯期頻率增加，如何有效管理水資源更顯重要。本研究針對氣候變遷影響下的台南地區，運用建制之水資源規劃系統，探討其水資源系統所受衝擊。並在蒐集基礎水文氣象資料後，透過氣象合成模式(TaiWAP)模擬近未來(2030)溫度、降雨量變化，以現況(2015)至近未來(2030)間每五年為目標年的方式線性劃分水文氣象資料，利用GWLF模式進行各時期曾文水庫、南化水庫等之入流量模擬。入流量可代入建制之系統動力模式(VENSIM)中，得知各目標年供需水情況，並以脆弱度、可靠度等探討台南地區所受水資源衝擊。在近未來情境背景：公共需水成長時，系統乘載力將嚴重不足，此時需透過各項調適策略的配合：不同的淨水廠擴建規模、海水淡化廠的加入，解決此一問題，其中將以脆弱度門檻值、缺水指標、可靠度、相對成本等做為各項策略評比依據，藉由多準則排序決策法得到各目標年最佳調適策略，並組成最佳調適路徑，以供未來設施規劃之參考。模擬結果顯示在未來氣候變遷加上公共需水成長情境下，RCP4.5情境於2020年僅需提升淨水廠能力100萬噸/旬即可改善缺水情況，2025年則需提升淨水廠能力約200萬噸/旬，2030年則發生必須運用海淡廠改善之情況，需提升淨水廠能力100萬噸/旬搭配新增海淡廠200萬噸/旬。而在RCP8.5情境於2020年時亦是需提升淨水廠能力100萬噸/旬，2025年便已需使用海淡廠才得已改善缺水情況，需提升淨水廠能力100萬噸/旬搭配新增海淡廠100萬噸/旬，2030年更是需運用到提升淨水廠能力200萬噸/旬搭配新增海淡廠200萬噸/旬。;Taiwan has the subtropical climate. Although annual rainfall of the island reaches 2,500 mm, available water resources of dry seasons are limited due to great spatial and temporal variabilities. Reliable water resources management systems are crucial to provide stable water supplies in Taiwan. Considering potential impacts of climate change may cause increased intensities and frequencies of extreme events, effect management strategies are particularly important. This study investigated impacts of climate changes on water resources in Tainan City. Historical meteorological data were collected. A weather generator was applied to generate daily temperature and rainfall for near future (2021~2040). The year 2030 was used to represent the near future. Weather data of every 5 years from 2015 to 2030 were estimated by linear interpolations. A hydrological model, GWLF, was adopted to simulate inflows of reservoirs in Tainan City. A system dynamic model, VENSIM, was used to build water resources system of the city to evaluate vulnerability and reliability of water resources in Tainan City under climate changes. Under near future scenarios, the carrying capacities of water resources systems are insufficient to support the great increase of public water demands. A variety of adaption measures, such as expanding capacities of water treatment plants and building desalination plants, were evaluated for resolving such shortages. Thresholds of vulnerability, shortage index, reliability, and relative cost of selected adaption measures were used to determine optimized combination of adaption measures by the multi-criteria ranking as suggested adaption pathways for every 5 years till 2030. Under the RCP4.5 scenario with increased pubic water demands, extra capacities of one million tons per 10-day and two millions tons per 10-day are required from water treatment plants to overcome water shortage in 2020 and 2025, respectively; while extra capacities of one million tons per 10-day from water treatment plants and two millions tons per 10-day from desalination plants are required in 2030. Under the RCP8.5 scenario with increased pubic water demands, extra capacities of one million tons per 10-day are required from water treatment plants to overcome water shortage in 2020; while extra capacities of one million tons per 10-day from water treatment plants and one millions tons per 10-day from desalination plants are required to overcome water shortage in 2025 and extra capacities of two million tons per 10-day from water treatment plants and two millions tons per 10-day from desalination plants are required to overcome water shortage in 2030. Comparing water shortages between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, one million tons per 10-day are required due to sever climate change impact.
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