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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ir.lib.ncu.edu.tw/handle/987654321/71196


    Title: 以經濟指標與鎳金屬價格之關係建立的鎳金屬採購下單模式
    Authors: 陳睿勳;Chen,Jui-Hsun
    Contributors: 工業管理研究所在職專班
    Keywords: 經濟指標;格蘭傑因果關係檢定;鎳金屬採購
    Date: 2016-08-10
    Issue Date: 2016-10-13 12:11:53 (UTC+8)
    Publisher: 國立中央大學
    Abstract: 摘要
      在面對世界經濟情勢波動下,LME鎳金屬現貨價格隨之波動起伏甚大,這會影響本國鎳金屬原料需求產業甚巨。如何透過採購模式的改進,明確指出良好的採購下單時間點,好的鎳金屬價格是重要課題。本文訪談國內鎳金屬原料使用的鎳金屬製品生產公司,透過公司內部管理與採購人員的訪談,發現個案公司雖有一套採購流程,在此流程下建立岀採購制度,但是對於鎳金屬原料採購確切時間點,則是靠採購人員的經驗法則作岀最後的決定。因此,當公司採購部門面臨人事異動,經驗沒有確實被傳承的情況下,容易誤判採購時間點,造成採購成本提高的現象。
      本研究希望建構岀新的採購模式,是比舊有的模式更佳客觀。參考相關的採購模式,並且從文獻中找出影響鎳原料價格波動的經濟指標,再利用統計上,格蘭傑因果關係檢定模型(Granger Causality test)找出四種關鍵的經濟指標,分別是LME庫存、黃金價格、美元匯率,以及布蘭特原油價格,指標作統計檢定,確定兩者之間的因果關係之後,建立岀屬於鎳原料的新採購模式。
      研究結果發現,整體面而言,新的採購模式可以節省1.46%的價格成本,使得採購流程更有效率。
    ;Abstract
      To face the world economic situation fluctuations, such that LME nickel spot price fluctuating is high, which will affect the demand for raw materials nickel metal industry is very huge. How to improve the mode of procurement process, and find a clear point of time under good purchase, good nickel price is an important issue. We interviews domestic nickel raw material used in nickel metal products manufacturing company, through interviews with the company′s internal management and procurement staff. We find that, even if the company owns a procurement process, but the final decision of exact time of nickel raw material procurement point sometimes rely on procurement personnel’s experience. Thus, when faced with the case of corporate purchasing department personnel changes, the experience is not really inheritance, easily misjudge purchase point in time, resulting in the procurement costs of the phenomenon.
    This study hopes to construct a new procurement process model which is a better objective than the old model. Reference interrelated purchasing patterns, and identify the impact of raw material price fluctuations of nickel economic indicators from the literature, and then use statistical model, Granger causality test to identify four key economic indicators, respectively LME stocks followed the price of gold, USD exchange rate and Brent crude oil prices, indicators for statistical test to determine the causal relationship, then to establish a new procurement model.
    The results found that, the new procurement model can save 1.46% of the cost price, making the procurement process more efficient.
    Appears in Collections:[工業管理研究所碩士在職專班 ] 博碩士論文

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