銅金屬價格波動下的採購策略;Purchasing policy under the copper price fluctuations

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题名:	銅金屬價格波動下的採購策略;Purchasing policy under the copper price fluctuations
作者:	溫景翔;WEN,CHING-HSIANG
贡献者:	工業管理研究所
关键词:	波動價格;影響銅價因素探討;存貨策略;希伯特－黃轉換
日期:	2016-07-20
上传时间:	2016-10-13 12:12:00 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	目前在工業上應用最多的基本金屬就是銅金屬，使用領域也以台灣主流的電子電機產業上為多，而國際銅價因為新興國家的經濟建設高度的成長，刺激需求大幅度的增加，造成了價格不斷的持續上漲，但又因為經濟景氣問題而導致快速崩盤。像是，2008年三月均價為8439美元/噸，但同年九月遇到全球性金融海嘯於十二月跌破3000美元/噸；2011年八月三十一日收盤價為9100.5美元/噸，但九月二十八日收盤價又因為歐債危機與大陸需求疲弱而跌破至6975美元/噸，一個月內的上下幅度將近30%，造成企業在採購原物料時價格誤判的成本風險。本研究針對原物料¬-銅金屬，針對銅金屬採購，詳細研究國際銅價的影響因素後利用LME現貨價、LME庫、黃金現價、石油價格、美國工業生產指數與銅價的正反關係，建立了銅金屬的採購模式，我們可以得知:價格起伏明顯有上漲或下跌時，下單效果會更明顯。如果我們知道價格有下跌得趨勢，我們就可以增加下單數量來降低成本；價格有上漲的趨勢，我們就分散下單數量來降低風險。採購部門透過相關指標了解國際經濟情勢的現況，提供銅價變化判斷的依據，加上採購策略的運用，來降低採購成本，增加公司獲利。 ;Copper is used in many industrial applications. Due to the strong growth of the economic development in the emerging markets, the demand for copper was continuously increasing and this was driving up the price. For example in March 2008 the average copper price was at US $8439 per ton, only 9 months later the price dropped to US $3000 per ton. In 31 August 2011 copper price of US $ 9100.5 per ton, but the September 28 copper price the European debt crisis and weak demand continent to below US $ 6975 per ton. The upper and lower amplitude in a month nearly 30%, resulting in a miscarriage of justice business price risk costs in the procurement of raw materials. In this study, for copper metal, a detailed study of factors that influence the use of positive and negative relationship between international prices of LME price, LME inventory, gold price, oil prices, the US industrial production index and copper, the establishment of copper procurement policy, we can see that: obvious price fluctuations up or down, the next procurement effect will be more obvious. If we know the price trend was down, we can increase the number of orders to reduce costs; the trend of rising prices, we have to reduce the risk of dispersion number of orders. Purchasing department understand the current situation through relevant indicators of the international economic situation, provide the basis for judging changes in copper prices. Use of procurement strategy to reduce procurement costs, increase corporate profit.
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