近年因台灣人口老化、平均餘命增加且出生率下降，加上國內勞退制度健全度不足且投資報酬也不佳，故老年退休金的問題逐步浮上檯面。 本研究主要探討比較生命週期基金與投資策略，是否適合成為退休金制度的一個重要選項，也可做為未來台灣開放勞退自選平台是否加入生命週期策略之比較基礎。我們以歷史模擬法搭配生命週期策略來比較，投資組合主要應用兩種資產，擷取台灣加權指數、S&P 500指數月報酬為風險性資產，美國10年期公債月殖利率為非風險性資產來計算，並以四種主要的生命週期策略，來比較累計退休金高低、投資效率、敏感度、與投資標的之相互關係。 總結來看，雖然生命週期策略無法完全擺脫風險性資產波動所造成的影響，但其報酬表現仍差強人意。故即使生命週期策略的波動幅度仍大，但仍優於勞退新制目前的表現。因此生命週期策略或基金仍不失成為退休金計畫中核心基金或預選基金的選項之一。 ;In recent years, Taiwan’s pension related issues are gradually surfacing and receiving more attention. This is due to an ageing population, coupled with an unsound Domestic Labor Pension System and poor returns on pension investments. This study explores and compares Life-Cycle Funds as investment strategies, and its viability for the pension system. Incorporating the life-cycle strategies, we use historical simulation method to calculate the pension returns based on a high and low risk asset portfolio. The former portfolio is made up of Taiwan Weighted Index and S&P 500 index monthly returns and the latter is the US 10-year Treasury monthly yield rate. Four major life-cycle strategies are used to compare the differences in cumulative pension returns and correlations between investment efficiency, volatility and targets. The results can then provide a basis for the feasibility of Self-Select Pension Scheme which may be available in Taiwan′s future pension system. The lack luster performance of life-cycle strategies with the volatility brought on by risk assets is within expectation. However, the performance still surpasses that of the current pension returns. So we believe life-cycle fund and strategies still have a role to play in the future of the pension default plan or core preselected fund.
