Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
|Keywords: ||經濟成長;電力;economy growth;electricity|
|Issue Date: ||2016-10-13 13:57:34 (UTC+8)|
台灣為能源缺乏國家，自有能源匱乏高達百分之九十以上的能源皆需仰賴從國外進口。能源供給體系相對規模小而獨立 ，欠缺有的能源備援系統。基於民生需求、各產業發展、整體經濟發展、環境永續及社會正義之考量，臺灣需要投入更多的電力基礎建設，以支應電力需求的增加。我國長期平均電價偏低又欠缺節能誘因，未來應落實能源價格合理化，使電價合理反映內部與外部成本，以有效引導節能。;This research project utilizes the principle of System Dynamics to establish an interactive model that analyze the causal relationship between the economy growth and the electricity consumption in Taiwan. The purpose of the research is to develop a tool that could aid in the design of energy policies by the government through the use of a technique called Scenario Analysis for electricity demand and supply. This can be achieved through the use of the Interlock and Feedback characteristics featured in System Dynamics model.
A recent review of research literature on electricity supply and demand published by other countries shows that very few research has taken into consideration the differences in the nature of electric consumption among various industrial sectors. The absolute majority of the research literature are focusing on the verification of the relationship between the electricity consumption and the economic growth. It is for this reason that this research not only analyzes the relationship between the overall electricity consumption and the economic growth, but also attempts to explore further into the electricity consumption by dividing the general industries into 6 sectors: industrial, residential, service, transportation, agricultural, and energy. The relationship between the economic growth and the electricity consumption within each individual industrial sector has been explored so that a conclusion can be drawn whether the current energy structure and policy will meet the forecast of future economic growth. This research will provide a good reference for the responsible divisions in the government to make future energy and electricity development policies.
Through evidence-based analyses on the GDP growth and the electricity consumption, it is discovered that, in short term, the overall electricity consumption and the economic growth manifests a one-way causal relationship in which the electricity consumption is the cause and the economic growth being the effect; whereas, under longer term observation, it is evident that the economic growth has a one-way causal relationship to the electricity consumption. However, through a statistical standard deviation comparison and analysis, it can be demonstrated that the economic growth and the electricity consumption manifest a mutual causal relationship.
Generally speaking, the economic growth and the overall electricity consumption in Taiwan are of a by-directional causal relationship with mutual feedback.
In the industrial sector, the result shows that the increase in industrial electricity consumption will increase the GDP growth. Since the variation in the industrial electricity consumption will a direct impact on the economic growth, from the policy making standpoint, implementation of any electricity conservation policy must be reviewed with cautions. Emphasis shall be placed on measures and sequences to be taken in order to avoid any over-conservation that could have a adverse impact on the national economy.
In the residential and service sectors, this research uses the results from statistical standard deviation comparisons and analyses where the variations in electricity consumption are very slow and stable, and will not impact the economic growth. Therefore, it can be concluded that electricity conservation measures proposed for the residential and service sectors are a feasible policy tool to be implemented by the electricity management authority.
Taiwan is an energy deprived country, the dependency on imported energy is more than 90%. The scale of domestic energy supply is small, isolated, and lacks an energy backup system. In view of the domestic demand, industrial development, overall economic growth, environmental sustainability and social justice, Taiwan needs to invest more resources into the electrical infrastructure to meet the increase in the electricity demand. Taiwan′s long term average electricity price tends to be low and there is a lack of incentive for the general industries to conserve energy. It is herewith recommended that the energy pricing structure be rationalized so that the electricity price reflects both the internal and external costs. This will effectively incentivize energy conservation for the entire industries in Taiwan.
|Appears in Collections:||[高階主管企管（EMBA）碩士班] 博碩士論文|
Files in This Item:
All items in NCUIR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.