| 摘要: | 台灣近年來出現嚴重的少子化問題，各界無不積極尋求解決方法，政府更擬定了一系列的福利措施和貼補政策，希望能減緩少子化的情形，但實施的成效非常有限，因此，本文期待能以更進一步的經濟分析來探討少子化的議題，提供給社會大眾或政府機關一個更明確的孩童養育成本。
首先我們使用行政院主計處的家計收支調查，將樣本分為四類，分別為無子雙人家庭、一子核心家庭、二子核心家庭和三子核心家庭，接著會進一步的探討各類別家庭樣本的食衣住行等支出金額和支出比例。
在研究方法部份，先選出我們所認為對各家庭類別具有影響力的家庭特徵變數，藉由OLS回歸模型求出回歸模型係數，接著利用Breusch-Pagan獨立性檢定，發現回歸模型的殘差項並不互相獨立，因此本文使用Seemingly unrelated regressing model做為新的估計模型，藉由控制住家庭特徵變數，求出不同家庭的所有樣本預測值，將所有預測值平均後我們進行差異分析。
研究結果發現，(1)當父母有孩孩童後，會犧牲自己的私有財支出，奉獻在孩童身上。(2)家庭所得為影響所有支出類別最重要的變數。(3)在食物和教育支出金額方面，由無子家庭到三子家庭，會因孩童人口數成固定規模上升。(4)在服飾、家居、健康和休閒支出金額方面，從無子到有子，會呈現一個級距的跳躍性上升。(5)最後發現，養育小孩的邊際成本，一、二、三人各為18萬、12萬、8千，具規模經濟效果。
;The serious problem of low birth rate occurred in Taiwan recently. All fields of people actively seek the solution, and the government developed a series of welfare and subsidy policy. The government expects to extenuate the situation of low birth rate, but the effect of policy is very limited. This paper looks forward to give the people and the government a more clearly raising cost of children by using a further economic analysis.
First, we use the Data of household income and expenditure survey, and the observations is divided in to four categories which are childless couples family, a son of the nuclear family, two sons and three sons of nuclear family. Then, we will explored in each kinds of family spend their lifestyles and spending proportion.
In the research method, we pick the independent variable which can representative the family household characteristics, and we use the OLS regression to find the regression coefficients. Then, we use Breusch-Pagan test of independence and discovery the residual of regression are not independent of each other. Therefore, we decide Seemingly unrelated regressing model as a new estimation model. By control the family characteristic variable, we obtain the predicted values of all observation. After we average all the predicted values, we can do the variance analysis.
The result implies that (1) When the family have children will make parents reduce their private property expenses, it means the sacrifice of parent. (2) Income is the most important variables to affect all categories of expenditure. (3)The expenditure of Food and Education will increase in fixed scale by the number of children. (4) The expenditure of Clothe, House, Health and Leisure will have a jump by the family with children or not. (5) Finally, we find the marginal cost of raising a child from one to three which are 180000, 120000 and 8000, with economic of scale. |
