| 摘要: | 2008年開放陸客以團進團出的方式來臺旅遊，2011年時更進一步開放陸客以自由行方式來臺旅遊，此一政策的確使得來臺觀光旅客人次逐年提升，然而，隨著陸客來臺人數的增加，開始有許多負面消息傳出，並排擠其他外國旅客來臺。雖然開放陸客來臺對來臺旅客之影響的研究已有很多，但對於國人旅遊影響的研究卻較為少見，因此本研究便聚焦在開放陸客來臺是否對國人國內旅遊產生排擠效果，造成國人國內旅遊行為的改變。
本研究利用2006年至2013年的國人旅遊狀況調查資料，首先以負二項模型實證分析國人在開放陸客來臺前後，國內旅遊次數是否有顯著差異。再進一步挑選4個陸客造訪頻率較高之景點，以常態機率模型分析，開放陸客來臺前後，國人造訪這4個旅遊景點的機率是否有顯著差異。研究結果顯示，國人國內旅遊次數未受到開放陸客來臺而減少，反而隨國人對旅遊之重視而增加，但開放陸客來臺後，某些陸客造訪頻率較高之景點，如臺北101、阿里山、太魯閣，國人造訪意願已降低，惟日月潭因遊憩設施的增加及改善，提高國人造訪意願，抵消開放陸客來臺之排擠效果。因此，國人雖未因開放陸客來臺而減少國內旅遊次數，但在景點的選擇上，會希望避開陸客造訪頻率較高之景點。;In 2008, Taiwan government opened tourism market to Chinese tourists traveling by groups, and by individuals in 2011. These policies indeed make the number of inbound visitors increasing annually. However, with the number of Chinese tourists increasing, we began to have a lot of negative news about it, and the Chinese tourists crowded out inbound visitors from other countries to Taiwan. Although there are many studies about the impact of opening policy for Chinese tourists on the behavior of other foreign tourists to Taiwan, studies about the impact on the behavior of domestic tourists are rare. Therefore, this study will focus on whether the opening policy for Chinese tourists generates crowding out effect, and results the change in the behavior of domestic tourists.
The study sample used in this thesis was selected from the “Survey of Travel by R.O.C. Citizens” from 2006 to 2013. The first part of this thesis, a negative binomial model is used to explore the differences on the travel times of domestic tourists after the opening policy of Chinese tourists to Taiwan. The second part, 4 scenes were chosen, which were visited by Chinese tourists in higher frequency, and a probit model is used to explore the differences on the probability of domestic tourists to visit these scenes after the opening policy of Chinese tourists to Taiwan. The results showed that, instead of decreasing, travel times of domestic tourists increased after the opening policy of Chinese tourists to Taiwan, because of valuing the importance of travel. However, after the opening policy of Chinese tourists to Taiwan, domestic tourists did reduce the willing to visit some scenes which are visited by Chinese tourists in higher frequency, such as Taipei 101, Alishan, and Taroko. On the other hand, the willing of domestic tourists to visit some scenes has increased, such as Sun Moon Lake, due to the increase and improvement of recreation facilities, and that offset the crowding out effect causing by the opening policy of Chinese tourists to Taiwan. Therefore, although travel times of domestic tourists does not decreased after the opening policy of Chinese tourists to Taiwan, they would avoid those scenes, which are visited by Chinese tourists in higher frequency. |
