近年來台灣各縣市政府為爭取較高的中央分配預算，紛紛採取升格的方式，使該縣市能獲得更多的發展資源，人口數則成為衡量各縣市政府規模的重要指標。各縣市政府往往祭出多項優惠及福利政策來吸引其他縣市人口流入，擴大自己區域規模，來達到升格的目標，從西元2009年至今先是有五都的成立，後又有桃園縣升格為準直轄市，因此，研究縣市政府吸引人口的政策與其成效成為很重要的課題。 本研究以1998年至2014年之政府公開資料，採用最小平方法模型及固定效果模型分析影響台灣20個縣市間人口移動的主要因素，並將變數分類為基本類、經濟類及社會類變數，交叉分析其對於各縣市間人口遷移的主要影響，特別比較基本類變數中的社會福利政策與經濟發展政策之結果，據以分析人口遷移的偏好。 其主要結果顯示，社會福利政策對於人口移動的影響較經濟發展政策為顯著，可見人民多偏好及時性的利益。本研究也發現，個人負擔之稅負、可支配所得、失業率、區域犯罪率、產業結構、居住空間及選舉，皆會對於縣市間人口移動有明顯的影響。 ;In recent years, Taiwan city and county governments to fight for higher central budget allocations have taken the upgrading method in order to get more resources for local development. Population has become an important indicator of identifying the size of the county and city governments. City and county governments often offered a number of preferential policies to attract residents from other counties to migrate into the area that meets its regional scale to achieve the goal of upgrading. From 2009, there were five municipalities for the upgrading. Taoyuan County was one of the upgraded area to the municipalities. Therefore, the study of policies that county and city governments have adopted to attract population migration has been a very important issue. In this study, we use the data collected from the government public information between the years in 1998 and 2014, and apply the method of least squares estimation and fixed effects model to analyze the main factors that affects the migration between the cities and counties in Taiwan area. The variables used in the models are classified as basic, economics and social class variables in which the variables of connecting the social welfare policies and economic development policies are in particular of interests. The estimation results show that the social welfare policies exist the bigger effects on the impact of migration more than those from the economic development policies. The study also found that personal tax burden, average household income, unemployment rate, crime rate, proportion of industry and commerce activities, living spaces, and local government elections, all will have a significant impact on population movements between cities and counties.
