| 摘要: | 摘 要
許多發展中的國家在經濟成長的過程中，會隨著工業化加深，出現進口替代的現象，先從消費品開始，而後逐漸擴及中間產品。中國大陸在近40年都有相當高的經濟成長率，是否同樣出現進口替代的情形，對於其經濟成長率是否有正面影響，發生在那些產業，是本文要觀察與解析的重點問題。
本研究先藉由投入產出表，分析中國大陸經濟成長的來源。研究發現，在1996-2001年期間，大陸經濟成長的最主要來源是產出的同步成長，而引發產出成長的最主要因素是政府消費成長（32.01%）、投資成長（33.09%）與出口成長（39.45%）；2001-2006年間，成長仍然是以產出擴張為主要來源，但因整體附加價值率下降，GDP成長不如產出快速；而導致產出成長的主要因素為出口成長（61.40 %），其次為投資成長（49.60 %），而消費的貢獻為負（- 31.02 % ）；在2006-2011年期間，GDP成長仍與產出同步，而導致產出成長的主要因素為投資成長（59.66 %），其餘少量的貢獻來自中間使用（14.16%）、政府消費（14.68%）及出口（12.57%）。
這些因素中與進口替代有關者，為國產中間使用的擴張。這個因素值得注意，因為在1996-2001期間，此因素對GDP成長之貢獻尚為負6.95%，2001-2006期間，則轉為正11.85%，2006-2011期間，其貢獻上升到了14.16%，雖占比不大，但其貢獻率的整體趨勢顯然是往上。且進一步分析在2006-2011年期間，國產中間使用的貢獻來源，最重要的貢獻為進口比率的上升（75.51%）。
本文進一步探討那些提供中間使用的產業，發生進口替代現象，我們發現在2006-2009年期間，製造業中以「用於中間使用製造業」與「用於其他最終支出製造業」進口替代現象最為明顯，原因為這兩個製造業占中間使用的比率最高。若將其細分為產業與產業間的進口替代程度，則排名如下：
（1）「用於中間使用製造業」投入本身產業
（2）「用於其他最終支出製造業」投入本身產業
（3）「用於中間使用製造業」投入「服務業」
（4）「紡織與鞋類製品」投入本身產業
（5）「用於其他最終支出製造業」投入「服務業」
（6）「用於中間使用製造業」投入「用於其他最終支出製造業」
（7）「用於固定資本形成製造業」投入本身產業
（8）「用於固定資本形成製造業」投入「用於其他最終支出製造業」
（9）「用於固定資本形成製造業」投入「用於中間使用製造業」
（10）「用於固定資本形成製造業」投入「服務業」
在分析中，產業間進口替代的程度，共有近95%的製造業有進口替代的現象，可說明在2006-2009年間中國大陸製造業有進口替代的情況發生，而且是普遍現象，而造成進口替代的原因，可能是政策或產品競爭力等各種不同因素所造成。
;Abstract
Due to the intense growth of industrialization in many developing countries, import substitution occurs from consumption good to intermediate goods. Thus, the focus of this study is in China, a country has high economic growth in late 40 years, and to view if import substitution occurs in China, in which industries, and if has positive influence on economic growth.
In the study, we refer to Input-Output Table to analyze the reason of the economic growth in China. It is found that the economic growth and output in China simultaneously rise from 1996 to 2001 mainly because of government investment growth(32.01%)、investment growth (33.09%)、export growth(39.45%); From 2001-2006 the growth was mainly due to output expansion, but the growth of GDP was not as high as that of output as a result of the decrease in rate of added value. The element led to the output growth is export growth(61.40 %)、investment growth(49.60 %)、consumption recession(- 31.02 % ); From 2006 to 2011, GDP rose as high as output, and the output growth was mainly due to investment growth(59.66 %)、intermediate use(14.16%)、government investment growth(14.68%)、export growth(12.57%).
Among all the factors written above, the vital factor related to import substitution the most is the downscaling of import of intermediate goods. From 1996 to 2001, the downscaling of import of intermediate goods had a 6.95% of influence upon the GDP growth, while the influence turned up to 11.85% from 2001 to 2006, and turned up to 14.16% in our last study. The increase was not on a large scale, but the influence is apparently upward. Moreover, the most vital contribution of our analysis is the phenomenon of the domestic intermediate use rising, which is rising to 75.51%.
We take a further step to discuss import substitution from the industries using intermediate goods during 2006-2009, and it is proved to have the highest probabilities of using intermediate goods from intermediate input in manufacturing and other final demand in manufacturing. The level of import substitution is listed in accordance with their probabilities.
(1) "for intermediate use in manufacturing" in industry itself.
(2) "other final expenses in manufacturing" in industry itself.
(3) "intermediate use in manufacturing" in "services."
(4) "Textile and footwear" in industry itself.
(5) "final expenditures for other manufacturing" in "services."
(6) "intermediate use in manufacturing" in "other final expenses for manufacturing."
(7) "fixed capital formation in manufacturing" in industry itself.
(8) "fixed capital formation in manufacturing" in "other final expenses for manufacturing."
(9) "the manufacturing sector fixed capital formation" in "for intermediate use in
manufacturing."
(10) "fixed capital formation in manufacturing" in "services."
In the analysis, 95% of the manufacturing has phenomenon of import substitution. It proves import substitution was common in the manufacturing from 2006 to 2009 in China. The phenomenon of import substitution may result from policy or product competitiveness. |
