從產業關聯表檢視美國再工業化成效

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Title:	從產業關聯表檢視美國再工業化成效
Authors:	潘俊孝;Pan,Jyun-Siao
Contributors:	經濟學系
Keywords:	再工業化;產業關聯表;因素分解;貢獻度;共整合;向量誤差修正模型;Industrial Renaissance;Input-Output table;Structural Decomposition Analysis;Contribution;Co-integration;VECM
Date:	2016-07-15
Issue Date:	2016-10-13 14:11:04 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	本研究欲了解自2009年美國政府啟動「再工業化」政策後，該國的經濟成長狀況以及造成其出口變動的因素，以檢視再工業化政策的成效。本研究第一部分，應用歐盟編製之「世界投入產出表」資料，對美國的經濟成長來源進行分析，研究期間為1995年到2011年。分析結果發現在2009年到2011年間，國內生產毛額成長和總產出成長同步，而導致產出成長的主要因素為出口的成長。在第二部分，本文進一步研究影響美國出口擴張的原因。利用世界銀行和美國聯準會的經濟資料，研究期間為1974年到2011年，透過共整合分析和共整合向量誤差修正模型來估計「出口占國內生產毛額」的迴歸方程式，並進行因素貢獻度分析，結果顯示美國在啟動再工業化政策期間，總合要素生產力變動對於美國出口占國內生產毛額的變動有將近一半的貢獻。綜合上述，美國「再工業化」政策雖然實施時間尙短，但若以總合要素生產力的上升代表此政策之成效，則此政策透過出口擴張，對於該國經濟成長有正面功效。當然，未來需要更長時間的觀察才能下定論。;This study is to survey the achievement of the policy of Industrial Renaissance the US government implemented in 2009, and to view the growth of GDP and the changes in export in the US. In the first part of this study, we analyze the growth of the GDP in the US from 1995 to 2011 by referring to the Word Input-Output Table made by the EU. It shows that GDP and the output of the US from 2009 to 2011 simultaneously rose, and the main driving factor of the growth of output is the change of exports. In the second part of this study, we go a step further to view the phenomenon of export expansion of the US. Referring to the data made by World Bank and Federal Reserve from 1974 to 2011, we use co-integration and VECM to estimate the regression of change of export in GDP and the importance of export contributes to the GDP in the US. It proves percentage of export from the GDP in the US are half because of the total factor productivity during Industrial Renaissance in the US. In conclusion, though Industrial Renaissance had been implemented not for a long time, the total factor productivity drives the export expansion, which encourages the economic growth in the US. It will need more time to make the conclusion in the near future for sure.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Economics] Electronic Thesis & Dissertation

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