| 摘要: | 台灣是出口導向的國家，對外貿易是經濟成長的基礎，爰針對出口產品進行存活分析。本研究係應用台灣經濟研究院貿易資料庫，1996年至2012年的台灣出口資料，探討台灣出口產品貿易關係的存活狀況，且運用存活風險分析，從國家面因素去估計不同因素對貿易關係存活(失敗風險)的影響，並比較所有產品與初始貿易額大於新台幣9,000萬的產品之間差異性。
實證結果第一部分，台灣整體產品出口平均存活為9.412年(中位數是9年)，初始貿易額大於新台幣9,000萬的產品出口平均存活為9.891年(中位數是10年)，代表初始貿易額愈龐大，貿易夥伴間的信賴關係緊密程度愈高，貿易不確定性愈低，彼此貿易往來存活期愈長；另產品貿易關係隨時間拉長，將面對愈多風險、愈低的存活率。第二部分，利用Cox、Weibull、Exponential及Logistic Regression模型，發現進口國家信貸訊息指數、共同語言與WTO皆可顯著降低貿易風險、增加貿易的存活機會，內陸會顯著增加貿易關係失敗的風險、降低貿易的存活機會，報關花費的時間與成本則分別會增加貿易風險與降低貿易存活。在初始貿易額大於新台幣9,000萬的產品資料中，僅有進口國家信貸訊息指數在風險與存活模型中會顯著降低貿易風險、增加存活機會，距離在風險模型及勝算比估計中會顯著增加貿易風險及降低存活勝算，WTO則只在風險模型中顯著降低貿易風險，該估計結果亦符合初始貿易額龐大會有較穩定的貿易關係，不易受各風險因素的影響。
;Taiwan is an export-oriented country, foreign trade is the basis for economic growth, we investigate survival analysis of export products. In this study, we analyze the survival status of Taiwan′s export trade relationship from 1996 to 2012 using the Taiwanese Economic Research Institute′s trade database. Using the hazard models and discrete survival analysis to estimate the impacts of different country-level factors on the trade relationships survival (risk of failure). And compare the differences between all products and products with an initial trade volume greater than NT $ 90 million.
In the first part of the results, on average, total Taiwan′s exports survive 9.412 years, the initial trade volume greater than NT $ 90 million survive 9.94 years. Representing the greater the initial trade volume, the higher the degree of trust between trading partners, the lower the trade uncertainty, the longer the survival of trade with each other. And trade relationship will face more risk with survival rate downward over time. In the second part of the results, We use the Cox hazard、Weibull、Exponential and Logistic Regression model. The results indicate that Depth of credit information index、countries share common language、WTO will lower hazard rates. In addition, they will increase the opportunities of trade survival. However, Landlocked countries will significantly increase the risk of trade relations, and reduce the opportunities of trade survival. Comparing with the total Taiwan′s export, a trade relationship with initial trade volume greater than NT $ 90 million faces less susceptible to the impact of risk factors, which has a stable trade relationship. |
