臺灣近年經濟成長停滯，GDP與民間投資不振且消費指數與薪資成長率持續低迷、加上外人投資衰退、出生率下降、政黨惡鬥不斷及中國問題未解...就在臺灣政經情勢持續渾沌之際，國際情勢快速變化，國際貿易合作越來越形緊密，FTA與多邊FTA不斷的形成，在美國與中國角逐世界霸權的地緣戰略考量下，RCEP和TPP就此成型，此巨型經濟貿易協定將帶來的衝擊將打破過去之經濟型態，對出口為經濟命脈的臺灣是一大危機，不僅被排除在外，且又受到中國因素的干擾，經貿發展與國際地位都持續萎縮，臺灣要突破政經困境勢必需要對國家戰略做出變革與調整。因此，本研究根據國內外行政機關統計資料以及專業機構與人士之論文研究等文獻進行歸納分析後，提出TPP與RCEP形成對臺灣的影響與應變戰略。 ;Impacts & Interactions of Joining TPP & RCEP： Strategic Concerns for Taiwan.
Abstract
Taiwan′s exports keep declining for 17 months; the PMI and local investment are weak; GDP and wage growth rate continue to slump; foreign investment deteriorate; birth rate remains slow down; the political instability and unsettled issues with the crossstrait relationship with mainland China, these are all the current interior challenges for Taiwanese government. Given the rapid emerging international environment and active international trade cooperation, can the free trade agreement (FTA) and multilateral FTA be an opportunity for the Taiwanese economy? With the race between US and China, RCEP and TPP have been formed as two giant FTA that will change the economic and trade relationships from the past. Based on these background, this study analyzes the potential cost and benefits of strategically joining TPP and RCEP for Taiwan′s economic development. Tentative examples and suggestions for national strategy are also discussed.
