人口結構變遷對財政教育支出之影響;The Impact of Population Structure Changing to Financial Expenditure of Education

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題名:	人口結構變遷對財政教育支出之影響;The Impact of Population Structure Changing to Financial Expenditure of Education
作者:	董凌芳;Tung, Ling-Fang
貢獻者:	產業經濟研究所在職專班
關鍵詞:	人口結構;老年化;population structure;aging
日期:	2017-07-21
上傳時間:	2017-10-27 13:59:09 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	台灣人口結構變遷的趨勢主要是受醫療科技進步以及晚婚、生育減少影響，形成壽命愈來愈長以及幼齡人口逐漸減少的現象，兩者一消一長，加速了台灣進入高齡化社會，老年化和少子化主導了這十多年來台灣人口結構之變遷；扶老負擔將成為主要社會經濟問題，因此本文欲探討當老年人口占總人口比例逐漸增加時，國家財務支出是否因為老年人口的退休金支出或者其他醫療照護政策進而對教育支出造成排擠效果。本文利用追蹤資料模型，以台灣20個縣市資料為研究對象，時間為1998至2015年，共18年進行實證分析。以年度教育支出比例為被解釋變數，使用幼年人口總數、老年人口總數、各縣市每戶可支配所得中位數、失業率、各縣市戶數總量為解釋變數。實證分析結果顯示本研究適用於固定效果模型，幼童人口總數與教育支出為正向顯著，代表幼童人口總數增加，各縣市政府教育支出也會明顯地隨之增加。老年人口總數與教育支出為正向顯著，這與本文預期結果不同，可能原因是各縣市政府一直將教育視為重要的未來發展關鍵，因此教育支出與老年人口都是持續增加，然而在未來，少子化與老年化情況愈趨嚴重時，老年化增長趨勢勢必會與教育財政支出產生衝突。;The trend of Taiwan′s population structure changing is mainly due to medical technology development and late marriage, fertility reduction, life-span is getting longer and the number of children is gradually reduced. Aging population and low birth rate accelerate Taiwan into the aging society. Therefore, the expenditure on the aging population is the main social and economic issue. I would like to explore whether the proportion of the aging population gradually increases, and then government’s financial expenditure on education will reduce due to the expenditure for pension and health care to the aging population. Is there exclusion to the expenditure between aging and children? In this paper, using panel data model, data includes 20 cities and counties in Taiwan, and time period is from 1998 to 2015. The proportion of the annual expenditure on education is the dependent variable. The total number of young people, the total population of the elderly, per household median disposable income, the total number household of cities and counties are independent variables. The results of empirical analysis show that this study is suited to fixed effect model, the relation between total population of young children and education expenditure is positive, representing the total number of young children increasing, the county’s government education spending will significantly increase. The total number of elderly population and education expenditure is positive, which is different from the expected result. The reason may be that the government has always regarded education as the important development in the future, so the education expenditure and the elderly population are increasing. However, while situation of population aging is getting heavy, there might a conflict between aging trend and financial expenditure on education.
顯示於類別:	[產業經濟研究所碩士在職專班 ] 博碩士論文

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