| 摘要: | 近年來台灣出口佔GDP的仍佔有相當的比重，對外貿易儼然成為台灣經濟成長的主要動能，許多政策制定者也以此為由致力於制定拓展國際貿易與促進出口競爭力(Export competitiveness)等相關政策。然在各國積極調整產業政策與各貿易對手激烈的競爭下，台灣出口動能(Export kinetic energy)也發生趨緩的現象。
在此環境下，提升出口競爭力成為各國刻不容緩的議題。許多實證研究指出出口競爭力係由許多因素所構成，其不僅限於一國生產要素與產業型態，同時也與競爭貿易對手、市場脈動與國際經濟關係密不可分，基於上述所提，本文以世界銀行(World Integrated Trade Soulutions)中的出口產品作為分析，並搭配國際標準產業分類((International Standard Industrial Classification of All Economic Activities, Rev.4,ISIC第四版)所分類出的製造業作為產業端之資料，再參照中華民國行業標準分類所區分「中類別製造業」，據此作為跨國比較基準，以避不同行業分類標準的差異造成比較偏誤，以便更為精準地瞭解我國出口產業與主要貿易國家之消長變化。將台灣主要前15大主要出口國家分作六大主要出口市場、並以在出口在全球市場搶得一席之地且與台灣在主要出口產業型態、主要出口市場各方面重疊的南韓作為比較競爭對手，藉此分析產業層級的出口競爭力。
本文首先檢視台韓國際貿易市場消長和出口產業結構發展現況，更研析台韓2015年各出口市場競爭環境變化，其次蒐集文獻歸納出口競爭力的相關決定因素，我們將出口競爭力基於以下變數作為基準，包含總體變數：名目匯率、實質有效匯率、出口物價指數及產業變數：工業生產指數、勞動生產率與單位勞動力成本的出口競爭力，並使用Panel data Model方法來衡量台灣出口市場其潛在的變化因素，我們的實證分析結果表明，觀察總體變數，實質匯率和出口物價皆影響出口表現，而在產業變數，主要以工業生產指數為主，勞動相關變數在歐美市場並不顯著、在其他市場有則對成本、效率影響有所不同。分析各個產業，總體變數是以實質匯率影響最為重要；產業變數仍是以工業生產指數最為重要。
;The study of export performance, especially to countries with foreign trade is the major source of economic growth. Based on Taiwan exports have played an increasingly important role in Taiwan’s economic growth and likely to decline. This study attempts to evaluate Taiwan export performance during the 2008-2015 periods, the competition between Taiwan and South Korea in the ASEAN, China, U.S., Japan and EU export markets. Through analyzing the changing pattern of export structure and competitiveness, the main find from this paper are as follows.
First, in overall variables, the real effective exchange rate has a clear, statistically significant effect on Taiwan’s export performance. Exchange rates are expressed as a comparison of the currencies of two countries. When a fall in a country’s exchange rate will lower export prices and raise import cost, that probably increasing the value of its exports and lower the amount cost on imports. In particular, Taiwan is a small country that is vulnerable to international fluctuations.
Second, some kinds of industrial variables, such that export price index, industrial productivity, unit labor cost, could improve Taiwan’s export. Especially, Taiwan is dominated by manufacturing, so the variables which are related to manufacturing need to pay more attention. The export price indexes are used to help measure inflation in products that are traded globally. Another one is unit labor costs show how much output an economy receives relative to wages, or labor cost per unit of output. A rise in labor costs higher than the rise in labor productivity may be a threat to an export’s competitiveness.
Last, the export competitors also impact on each other. When a country′s overall variables and industrial variables change, other countries will be affected. As our study demonstrates, South Korea’s export is more significantly affected by Taiwan’s industrial variables.
According to all finding of this research, facing the international trend and the industrial structural accelerated, we should promote the program of Taiwan’s businessmen return to Taiwan in order to improve domestic industrial structure and finding the best ways to cope with international volatility, aiming to design the trade, economic strategy and product market expansion to upgrade the Taiwan’s export competitiveness and the steady economic growth. |
