在台灣的年資料中可以發現台灣有消費過度波動的現象，為新興市場國家的特徵。本文參考Alvarez-Parra et al. (2013) 之模型，建立了一個兩部門模型，在考慮耐久財消費以及金融摩擦的情況下，解釋台灣所呈現的景氣循環現象及各變數面對正向生產力衝擊的反應函數。相對於其他新興市場國家，台灣的耐久財部門的消費及資本份額較高，本文的結果呈現台灣較易受到金融摩擦的影響，進而對進出口的波動有較大的貢獻。;The excess volatility of consumption puzzle is identified in the Taiwanese data, which states that total consumption expenditure is more volatile than that of income. Based on Alvarez-Parra et al. (2013), this paper establishes a two-sector model to analyze the business cycle phenomenon in Taiwan and to conduct impulse response analyses of positive productivity shocks. Two main features of the model are durable consumption and financial friction. Compared to other emerging markets, Taiwan′s consumption and capital shares in the durable goods sector are higher. The simulation results demonstrate that the Taiwanese economy is prone to be affected by financial friction, which in turn contributes greatly to the volatility of net export.
