不合理的規劃工期及成本常會衍生工程逾期或廠商倒閉的履約爭議，導致專案無法如期如質完成，並造成多方的損失。過往研究對於新建工程在工程造價及工期的推估有較多的論述，但古蹟修復專案目前卻只有針對部分類型(傳統寺廟)在工率及造價有一些的研究。國內在古蹟修復計畫初期經費槪算及工期尚無一合理推估方式，導致實務應用上經常出現管控上之困擾。本研究藉由過往案例之「修復或再利用計畫」及「工作報告書」中的調查研究及施工紀錄資料，收集我國文化資產主要類組(寺廟、宅第)修復完竣實例資料並進行統計分析。經分析後，本研究提出利用修復建築面積為自變數之迴歸方程式預測模式，以利快速推估古蹟修復專案之合理成本及工期。本研究主要貢獻是提出簡易化之預測模式，只要使用單純的變數便能推估出合理的成本及工期，即使是非工程專業人員也能應用。;Unreasonable planned duration and cost often cause different contract disputes, such as project overdue and contractor bankruptcy, which make the project unable to be completed within as-planned schedule and with anticipated quality and consequently result in financial losses to multiple contract parties. Previous researches mainly focused on dealing with duration and cost estimates for new construction projects. There are limited researches related to historic building restoration projects, which have attempted to address the issues of productivity and cost estimate for some types (i.e., traditional temples) of historic buildings. This study found that there is no approach to forecast project duration and cost for historic building restoration in its early stage, which results in the situations of budget and schedule planning and control being problematic. Based on the investigation reports and construction records from the “Rehabilitation or Reuse Plan” and “Work Report” in past historic building restoration projects (only temples and houses are investigated), this study collected key project features and performed statistical analysis to figure out key variables for forecasting project duration and cost. This study proposes a forecast model that uses the restoration area of historic building restoration project as a variable in a regression-based forecast model to produce a reasonable duration and cost quickly. The main contribution of this study is to develop a reliable duration and cost forecast model that can generate reasonable duration and cost. The developed model is a convenient approach, with which even non-engineering background personnel can use it easily.
