| 摘要: | 在道路開發的過程中，隨著周邊地區的交通改善，土地價格也會隨之提升；本研究以印尼東爪哇省Porong市所進行的主要道路開發為研究基礎，調查發現該地區的道路開發使其周圍的農地價格提升了317%、旱地價格提升了51%。本研究的目的是運用 Black-Scholes 理論將宏觀經濟學和環境特徵概念整合到一個給定地區， 從而開發一套預測地價模型， 期望此模型可以用以 (1) 協助投資者找出影響地價的因子並預測土地價格；(2) 協助政府做出有效的都市計畫政策；(3) 比對都市及鄉鎮地區之土地價格差異。 首先利用 ArcGIS獲取地價，然後利用ArcGIS進行地圖定位，再通過驗證性因素分析法確定影響地價的因素，然後將這些因素作為調整地價方程的材料。 結果表明，該模型的默認地價為1,314,000 IDR，準確率為93.6％ 。
研究結果顯示，2013與2014年期間，價格較高的土地多集中於收費道路旁；直到2015年，在新建道路周圍的土地開始有急遽上漲的情形。然而，影響土地價格的因素有多種不同的可能性，例如：主要道路、車站、圖書館、市區、購物中心、超市、醫療設施、公園、易洪區、泥流區、工業區或計畫道路等。本研究所提出的模型則可以作為投資者或政府在評估及預測未來土地價格作為預算基礎時，用來權衡及參考的一個工具，此一模型的運用將可以使建設案避免一些不必要的風險，同時減少合約爭議。;Arterial road development in Porong, East Java, Indonesia, has been improving the accessibility in its surrounding area. The evidence shows that the increase for land price was up to 317% for agricultural land and 50% for drylands in two years. The objective of the study is to apply a land pricing model in a given region using Black-Scholes theory and integration of the macroeconomics and environmental features concepts in order to (1) serve as a tool for the investors to examine the factors and predict future price trends; (2) assist government in making effective urban development plan decisions; (3) make a comparison between urban and rural pricing. Data collection associated with land price was conducted and then mapped out using ArcGIS. Factors affecting land price were identified using Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA), and were further used as inputs for adjusting the land price equation. They are distance to arterial road, train station, library, downtown, outlet, supermarket, healthcare facility, park, flood-prone areas, mud flow areas, planned industrial park, and planned road network. Result shows that the model has accuracy rate at 93.6% in average where the average book values for land price were around 1,314,000 IDR. This model is effective to serve as a tool for investors and governments to examine the factors, and to predict future price trends, especially for budgeting purposes. |
