台灣主地震圓弧交叉與大震之關聯(1990年至2003年)

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Title:	台灣主地震圓弧交叉與大震之關聯(1990年至2003年)
Authors:	陳彥妤;Chen, Yen-Yu
Contributors:	土木工程學系
Keywords:	主地震圓弧交叉;主雙凸型地震圓弧交叉;地震預測;strongest intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes;strongest double-convex intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes intersection;earthquake prediction
Date:	2018-08-21
Issue Date:	2018-08-31 11:27:29 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	本研究於台灣中央氣象局地震資料庫擷取地震資料，再從中擷取西元1990年至2003年之地震目錄，利用MATLAB程式先尋找在四年內規模M≧5.7之地震繪製地震分布圖，嘗試從地震分布圖中找出由距離近似均勻之5個或以上之地震事件，組成的弧線以及其交叉，如無法找到，則將規模M慢慢下修直至找出地震弧及交叉，通常最低規模M至5.0即能找到弧交叉，而此交叉我們稱之為「主地震弧交叉」，若此交叉有重疊區則稱為「主雙凸地震弧交叉」。「主地震弧交叉」及「主雙凸地震弧交叉」發生後四年間，在交叉點範圍半徑70公里內發生規模M≧5.7 之大地震機率約有78.3% ，至於發生規模M≧6 之大地震機率約有67.9%，可知本研究對於未來地震之預測有一定的參考價值。此外，本研究會針對每個弧交叉計算出其中均勻分佈的10個或9個地震事件點對應的釋放能量之總和，以及對應裂縫長度的分佈標準差，探討其與大地震發生之間的關聯性。;This thesis studies seismic data from 1990 to 2003. We use the MATLAB program to search for seismic distribution of events with magnitude (M)≧5.7 in 4 years and try to find out the intersection of arcs of earthquakes consisting 10 or more seismic points with approximately uniform distances. If the intersection cannot be found, then we scale down the magnitude (M) until the intersection of arcs of earthquakes has been found. Usually, the intersection can be found for events with a minimum M arround 5.0. This intersection called the “the strongest intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes”, if this intersection has overlapping areas, it is called “the strongest double-convex intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes ". In the four years after “the strongest intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes” and “the strongest double-convex intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes " have been occurred, the probability of an earthquake with M≧5.7 occurring around the intersection point within a distance of 70 km is approximately 78.3%, and the probability of an earthquake with M≧6 is approximately 67.9%. This indicates that this study is valuable in predicting strong earthquakes. In addition, this study calculates the sum of the released energy corresponding to the 10 or 9 seismic event points uniformly distributed in the two arcs of the intersection and the standard deviation of the corresponding fault lengths of these uniformly distributed events. The connections between these parameters and the occurrence of the predicted strong earthquakes are studied.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Civil Engineering] Electronic Thesis & Dissertation

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