| 摘要: | 銀行評估授信違約風險，實務上運用財務比率分析授信戶各項財務指標，並轉化為財務比率評分以提供授信決策參考。為探究可確保授信安全與可能誘發授信違約風險之各項財務比率範圍，確認財務比率評分對授信違約之預警效果，本文以1997年至2016年間金融業以外之公開發行公司為研究對象，分為未加區別是否違約之對照組計2,181家與違約組計55家，參考銀行授信實務大型企業常用之財務比率評分標準，滿分以百分計，分從償債能力、財務結構、獲利能力及經營效能等四個財務構面，計算各項財務比率評分，分別依產業別、年度間、對照組與違約組間之對照比較，從中分析財務比率評分與授信違約之相關性。
本文研究結論如下：
1.對照組之財務比率評分平均為75.50分，各產業高低區間為64.78分~80.87分，產業性質不同，財務比率高低水準亦有所差異。各年度高低區間為70.84分~79.03分，除獲利能力構面之財務比率，易受經濟景氣影響致波動幅度較大外，其餘財務構面之財務比率波動幅度並不大。
2.違約組違約前四個年度之財務比率評分平均依序為62.88分、60.27分、55.76分及49.21分，明顯呈下滑趨勢，違約前三個年度平均為55.08分，相較於對照組平均75.50分，相差幅度約為20分，顯示財務比率評分對於銀行授信違約風險，的確具有一定程度之預警效果，可供銀行授信風險評估之參考。
;The bank evaluates the credit default risk by using the financial ratios to analyze the financial pointers of the credit customers in practice, and translates the financial ratios into score to provide reference for credit decision making. In order to explore the possible range of financial ratios ensuring credit security or inducing credit default, and confirm the prediction effect of financial ratio score for credit default, this article takes the publicly held corporations outside the financial industries from 1997 to 2016 as the research object differentiated into contrast group without distinguishing whether or not to default totaling 2,181 companies and default group total 55 companies, references financial ratio scoring standard of large enterprises commonly used in bank credit practice, full score in hundred, calculates the score of various financial ratios from four financial aspects including debt-paying ability, financial structure, profitability and operating efficiency, and compares the correlation between the financial ratio score and credit default respectively according to industry, year, contrast group and default group.
The conclusions of this article are as follows:
1.The financial ratio score of contrast group is the average of 75.50. Each industry low and high range is 64.78~80.87. The nature of the industry is different, and the level of financial ratios varies. Each year low and high range is 70.84~79.03. In addition to the financial ratios of the profitability are easy to be influenced by economic boom, the financial ratios of the remaining financial aspects are not much of a fluctuation.
2.The financial ratio score average of default group four years prior to default is 62.88, 60.27, 55.76 and 49.21, significantly downward trend. The score average three years prior to default is 55.08, compared to contrast group average 75.50, margin about 20. Evidently financial ratio score does have a certain degree of prediction effect for bank credit default risk, available for the bank credit risk assessment reference. |
