生質燃油與原油價格關聯性分析─以棕櫚油為例

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题名:	生質燃油與原油價格關聯性分析─以棕櫚油為例
作者:	湯鴻賢;Tang, Hung-Hsien
贡献者:	高階主管企管碩士班
关键词:	棕櫚油指數;生物質燃料;原油價格;Palm oil index;Biomass fuel;Oil Price
日期:	2018-07-13
上传时间:	2018-08-31 14:31:03 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	隨著工業發展日趨成熟，帶給人類十分便捷的生活，但這樣的生活型態是因為建立在過度使用石化產品，燃燒各種化石燃料產生地球溫室效應急遽升高，氣候的反常例如:南半球的澳洲竟然在夏天下雪，北半球也發生氣候異常，洪水肆虐，暴雪紛飛，中國大陸最近更遭受著幾十年來最嚴重的風雪戕害。有鑑於此，科學家們無不竭盡所能試圖研究出可以替代石油的生物質能源。目前所熟知的生物質替代能源有：棕櫚油製成生質柴油，大豆、黃豆、玉米等製成生質酒精，用以取代化石燃料。在這個狀況下，希望藉由國際大宗物資價格的變化，研究其是否與國際原油價格波動有關，另外為了強化研究結果與經濟指標關聯程度，擷取經濟合作與發展組織的消費者物價指數。研究結果顯示：可以解釋用來製作生質酒精燃料的玉米、大豆及生質柴油的棕櫚油價格指數，對於原油價格的關聯性是顯著的，這也就是說當原油價格因為供需關係或者景氣及政治經濟條件影響下發生變化時，可以用來取代原油的生物質燃料價格也隨之變化，而且是正向變化：亦即原油價格上漲，導致生物質燃料相關的農產品需求增加，價格也隨之翻揚，進而影響到全球農產品價格。;As industrial development matures, life has thus become very convenient. On the other hand, the excessive use of petrochemicals and the burning of fossil fuels have however brought earth-shattering global warming, and extreme climate such as summer snowing in the downunder Australia, and raging flood and snowstorm in the northern hemisphere. China also has recently suffered the worst snowstorms in decades. In view of this, scientists have been trying to develop biomass energy to hope to replace fossil fuels, including what we are familiar with, the biodiesel made from palm oil, and the bioethanol from soybean and corn, etc. Under this premise, we hope to study whether the variation in the price of international bulk commodity relates to the price fluctuation of international crude oil. In the study, we adopt the consumer price index from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) to further strengthen the credibility of the correlations found between the economic indicators and our results, for according to Wikipedia the OECD is a major and one of the most trustworthy providers for global economic and social statistical data. The results of our study indicate significant correlations between crude oil price and both the price indices of palm oil used for making biodiesel, as well as corn and soybeans for making bioethanol fuels. This means that when the price of crude oil fluctuate under the influence of supply/demand or political/economic conditions, the price of biomass fuel that can be used to replace crude oil varies correspondingly, and toward the same direction. As long as crude oil price increases, the demand increases for the agricultural products used to make biomass fuels, and so the prices. This then increases the price of global agricultural commodities .
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