台灣與中國無論是在文化背景、貿易往來或是地緣關係都頗為密切，而近年人民幣在國際上的地位逐漸攀升，在2013年後人民幣也成為國人外幣資產配置中第二大外幣，因此本文以曹添旺與唐忠廷(2016)與Tsaur and Tsaur (2016)的模型設定為基礎，並運用台灣2010-2016年的實際資料設定合理的參數值，進行數值模擬分析本國施行寬鬆的貨幣政策對貨幣政策獨立性的影響。本研究結果發現，擴張性的貨幣政策如何影響國人的通貨持有量與新台幣和美金的貨幣替代彈性大小有關。當新台幣與美金為淨替代關係，且國人持有美金的比例提高至28.35%時，則寬鬆的貨幣政策會伴隨淨外幣流入，導致本國貨幣政策不具獨立性。此外，本文延伸探討影實質匯率波動因素發現：當修正的馬歇爾條件成立時，台灣由美國進口的金額越大，本國實質匯率波動的幅度越大；且新台幣與美金的貨幣替代彈性對本國實質匯率波動的影響大於國人持有美金比例變化對本國實質匯率波動的影響。;Taiwan and China are relatively close in culture, trade, and geographical relationship. In recent years, the status of RMB in the international market has gradually increased. Since 2013, the RMB has become the second largest foreign currency in the allocation of foreign currency assets. Our model based on Tsaur and Tang (2016) and Tsaur and Tsaur (2016), then we used Taiwan′s 2010-2016 data to set reasonable parameter values. The purpose of this paper is to study the independence of monetary policy through numerical simulation. This paper shows that the elasticity of currency substitution between NTD and USD determines the impact of expansionary monetary policy on domestic people′s currency holdings. When NTD and USD present net substitution, and domestic people′s USD holdings exceeds 28.35% of overall currency holdings, an expansionary monetary policy would result in net foreign currency inflows, which violates the independence of monetary policy. In addition, this paper extends the exploration of real exchange rate fluctuations. When the modified Marshall condition is established, the greater the amount of Taiwan’s imports from the United States, the greater the fluctuations of the real exchange rates. Specifically, the elasticity of currency substitution between NTD and USD has a greater impact on real exchange rates fluctuations than the ratio of USD holdings by domestic people.
