模控學於風險評估與管理之跨領域研究準則與詮釋;The principle and interpretation of transdisciplinary researches in risk prediction and management by cybernetics

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Title:	模控學於風險評估與管理之跨領域研究準則與詮釋;The principle and interpretation of transdisciplinary researches in risk prediction and management by cybernetics
Authors:	許劭偉;XU, SHAO-WEI
Contributors:	資訊管理學系
Keywords:	跨領域;模控學;風險管理;波動度變化;Transdisciplinarity;Cybernetic;Risk management;Volatility change
Date:	2018-06-25
Issue Date:	2018-08-31 14:47:16 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	跨領域研究被認為是有創造性解決不同領域間見解的重要方向。模控學之因果網路及環路變化具有暫時性、動態性的複雜系統和現實現象的分析和模擬能力，對於微觀和巨觀問題可提出一致且完整的質性和量化的方法，因此本研究將以跨領域研究框架將企業風險於會計理論之微觀分析方法，轉換為財務學中波動度變化和風險關連性巨觀之現象，並歸納實證研究中的不同實證結果，觀察模型中之結構狀態轉換變化來預測企業風險變化。利用Hsiao et al.（2016）於會計學中的風險觀念建立之因果網路，由會計元素間的系統相關動態變化因果關係可得知風險之變化，並且以美國前500 大公司為實驗對象，分析各迴圈的變化時間、週期以及資金缺口變化率，並將各迴圈分析結果整合，歸納出可能存在的迴圈組合，並說明各模型中的結構狀態與風險變化，再以樹狀圖的方式呈現，其中風險變化共有6 種，分別為風險減少、風險增加、風險先減後增、風險先增後減、風險先減後增再減，及風險增加或減少。藉此企業可以知道，選擇的作為代表了迴圈組合的風險與波動度變化。因此，本研究的貢獻為，一，企業可透過各迴圈的分析結果，選擇適合發展的作為，二，歸納出所有可能發生模型的結構狀態與風險變化，三，以跨領域方法詮釋會計和財務領域中不同結論之爭議。;This study uses the interdisciplinary analysis framework to transform corporate risks into the micro-analysis of accounting theory, and uses interdisciplinary analysis methods to convert into volatility and risk-related dimensions of financial science. The phenomenon, and induction of different empirical results in empirical research, observed changes in the structural state of the model to predict changes in corporate risk. Hsiao et al. (2016) who establishes a causal network of risk concepts in accounting is used. The system-related dynamic changes between accounting elements can be used to understand the changes in risk, and the top 500 companies in the United States are the experimental subjects to analyze the change time, cycle, and funding gap change rate of each loop, integrate the loop analysis results, summarize the possible loop combinations, and explain the structural status and risk changes in each model, and the way of graphs is presented so that companies can predict risk changes through changes in the various elements of the company. Therefore, the contributions of this study are: First, companies can select activities suitable for development through the analysis results of the various loops. Second, induction all possible models, and their structural status and risk changes. And third, interpret disputes over different conclusions in the accounting and financial domains in a cross-cutting manner.
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