本研究旨在建構中國商業狀況指數，藉此衡量中國的景氣變化。利用公開市場資訊，本研究蒐集27個不同的經濟變數，期間為2007年1月到2018年9月，依照變數的經濟特性將變數歸類在實體經濟面和名目經濟面兩個不同構面中並使用主成分分析建構兩個面向的景氣指標。接著將兩個經濟指標得到主成分因子再次利用主成分分析得出新指標的權重，建構出中國的商業狀況指數。結果顯示，實體經濟面、名目經濟面以及商業狀況指數都能有效地偵測到樣本期間內整體景氣的變化。除此之外，我們發現前一期商業狀況指數會對當期中國經濟成長率產生正向的影響以及社會融資規模在整體景氣的變化扮演著重要的角色。此結果代表利用本研究建構出的中國商業狀況指數，我們可以率先預測中國大陸接下來的經濟成長率的變化；以及針對社會融資規模有可能對景氣造成的影響，有關單位在制定相關政策時，可以將此因子納入考量當中。;In this study, we construct a business condition index to measure the business cycle of China. Through public information, we collect 27 different economic variables from January 2007 to September 2018. According to the characteristics of each variable, we classify the variables into two economic dimensions, which are real economy and nominal economy, respectively. Then, by using principle component analysis, we construct two indices to detect the change of business cycle in different categories. Based on the results of the two indices, we establish a new business condition index of China by using principle component analysis again to determine the weight of each factor. The outcomes show that our indices in different dimensions can truly detect the business cycle in the sample period. Finally, we find the lagged term of business condition index would positively affect the China′s gross domestic product. Besides, the aggregate financing to the real economy may be a main reason for the change in the business cycle. These results indicate that the business condition index we construct in this study can be related to the China′s future economic status, and the importance of aggregate financing to the real economy should be considered while the government is making the decisions.
