本計畫探討經濟不確定型對於外匯市場的影響, 分別由貨幣的風險溢酬, 匯率的資訊效率， 與 匯率與外匯交易量對於貨幣政策之反應來探討. 透過由全球經濟不確定性與個別國家的經濟不確性來探討期對於匯率的變化與外匯市場ˋ 價個效率和交易活動的影響, 藉以深入了解經濟環境的變化與總體經濟政策的對於外匯市場之影響。 ;In times of high economic uncertainty about fiscal, regulatory, and monetary policies, rational agents would behave more conservatively and react to increase precautionary saving and decrease real investment, and rebalance portfolios away from risky assets towards safe assets. This project aims to study three themes about how foreign exchange (FX) traders react to heightened economic uncertainty in currency pricing, trading activities, and the response to monetary policy news. The first sub-project explores if uncertainty is or is not priced into currency excess returns. We are interested to understand how return dynamics on risky currencies differ from those of safe currencies in the face of variations in economic uncertainty. The second sub-project investigates how informational efficiency varies with the variation in economic uncertainty. The third sub-project studies if the reaction of currency returns, trading volume, and volatility to U.S. monetary policy news change with global economic uncertainty.
