本研究分析房貸預期放款的決定因素，以國內F銀行林口分行之304筆房貸資料為樣本，承貸時間由2016年至2019年，採用Logit與Probit模型將影響因子分成三大類進行探討，分別為客戶基本特徵、銀行關係以及擔保品狀況，研究發現基本特徵當中的工作年資對逾期放款有顯著負相關，銀行關係中的信用卡使用張數對逾期放款有顯著負相關。此外，本研究發現F銀行的內部信用模型對逾期放款有顯著正相關，表示F銀行在房貸審核上，已有相當好的預警模式，若能在內部信用模型將工作年資以及信用卡使用張數納入考量，可進一步提升授信品質與降低逾期放款之風險。;This research investigated deciding factors of mortgage loan default by analyzing the mortgage client data of Linkou branch at domestic F bank from year 2016-2019 with 304 records in total. The Logit & Probit model was employed to discuss three main variables of mortgage loan default: characteristics of mortgage loan clients, relationship between mortgage loan clients and the bank and real property collateral status. The results showed that the tenure in characteristics of mortgage loan clients significantly negative correlated with mortgage loan default. Moreover, the internal credit rating model of F bank has significant signal to mortgage default, which showed that F bank has a relatively good forecasting model. If factors such as tenure and the number of credit cards used can be added to the internal credit rating model, it can improve the loan quality and reduce the risk of default.
