貨物稅減徵補貼政策對減少老舊機車之影響;The Influence of the Abatement of Commodity Tax and Subsidies on the Reduction of Old Motorcycles

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题名:	貨物稅減徵補貼政策對減少老舊機車之影響;The Influence of the Abatement of Commodity Tax and Subsidies on the Reduction of Old Motorcycles
作者:	王鼎硯;Wang, Ting-Yen
贡献者:	產業經濟研究所在職專班
关键词:	貨物稅減徵;補貼政策;老舊機車;差異中的差異法;Commodity Tax Abatement;Subsidy Policy;Old Motorcycles;Difference in Difference Method
日期:	2020-06-17
上传时间:	2020-09-02 16:55:37 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	我國機車密度居亞洲之冠，由於地狹人稠、使用便利，機車一直是最常見的交通工具，因而造成機車總登記數、每百人擁有機車數及老舊機車數量一直居高不下。伴隨著因全球暖化所造成的環境問題日趨嚴重，世界各地空氣汙染議題逐漸為人們所重視，因此若能適時汰換老舊、高汙染機車，以新世代更環保之機車取代，將有利於減少移動性汙染所帶來的環境影響。貨物稅條例第12 條之5 係於民國105 年1 月8 日起施行，本研究係使用差異中的差異法作為研究方法，以政策前後民國103 年及105 年的交通部統計處「機車使用狀況調查」為樣本，車齡為應變數，已行駛公里數、平均油耗、全年保養維修費、性別、年齡、每月個人所得為自變數，並將預計再使用幾年後淘汰和淘汰後是否繼續購買設為虛擬變數，且亦依是否繼續購買區分為實驗組和控制組等建立迴歸模型，以評估貨物稅減徵補貼政策對減少老舊機車之影響。由實證結果可得知，在以整體車齡為應變數時，其實證結果為負且顯著，代表貨物稅減徵政策實施後，的確有達到促進汰舊換新減少老舊機車之目的。;The density of motorcycles in our country is the highest in Asia. Due to the limited land area and dense population, the easy-to-use motorcycles have been the most common means of transportation, resulting in the massive number of registered motorcycles, as well as the high ownership of new and old motorcycle per hundred people. As the environmental problems caused by global warming becoming more and more threatening, people are paying more attention to air pollution issues around the world. Therefore, if we can replace the old and highly-polluting motorcycles with new and more environment-friendly ones in time, it will be beneficial to alleviate the environmental impact of mobile source pollution. Article 12-5 of the Commodity Tax Act came into force on January 8, 2016. This study uses the Difference in Difference (DID) method for research. Its sample is the "Survey on Motorcycle Usage” conducted by the Statistics Department of the Ministry of Transportation and Communications (MOTC) in 2014 and 2016, before and after the effective date of the Act. For the dependent variables, this study uses vehicle age; for the independent variables, it uses the mileage, average fuel consumption, annual maintenance and repair costs, gender, age and individual income per month; for the dummy variables, it uses the estimated year of usage and whether to re-purchase after disusing. In addition, regression models are constructed according to the treatment group and control group, whose classification is based on whether users will re-purchase, in an effort to estimating the influence of the abatement of commodity tax and subsidies on the reduction of old motorcycles. Empirical findings show that when the overall vehicle age is taken as the dependent variable, the results are negative and statistical significant, indicating that after the implementation of the commodity tax cut, the purposes of promoting the replacement of old motorcycles with the new ones and reduction of old motorcycles were indeed achieved.
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