| 摘要: | 過去近四十年來，台灣產業就業結構如同其他先進國家一樣，由工業轉變為以服務業為主，但產業的轉變速度在縣市間出現差異。同時，台灣人口以非常快之速度老化，然而縣市間的人口高齡化也出現老化速度不一致的情況。鑒於此，本文主要研究目的為探討人口高齡化對產業就業份額之影響。本文以「人力資源調查資料庫」，計算獲得縣市就業結構的panel資料，以固定效果模型探討高齡化對不同產業的就業份額影響。同時，基於就業份額與高齡化之間存在內生性問題，本研究找尋合適變數作為工具變數組合，再以2SLS模型進行迴歸分析。除了針對三級產業進行分析之外，本文亦將產業細分為9大分類，探討高齡化對就業結構影響。同時，也著重於社會進入人口高齡化之前與之後，產業就業結構之變化，以及不同年齡層勞動參與率變化之影響。
實證結果發現，人口老化對農業就業人數佔比有顯著減少影響；對工業雖不具顯著影響，但其會顯著減少製造業就業人數之佔比，提高營造業就業佔比。人口老化與服務業的就業份額則有顯著正向關係，尤其是商業、金融保險不動產及工商服務業、公共行政和社會及個人服務業等產業。社會高齡化速度的提高，將會更為加劇製造業就業份額的減少速度，以及商業和公共行政和社會及個人服務業就業份額的增加速度。此外，中高齡人口勞動供給增加時，傾向於就業於農業。
根據本文的實證結果，建議政府相關單位應重視人口老化速度增快時，就業結構的可能變化，以及勞動供給變化的影響效果。適度提高青年和中高齡人口之勞參率，應可緩和製造業就業份額快速萎縮以及公共行政和社會及個人服務業快速擴張。同時，相關單位需注意中高齡勞參率提高對農業的影響，此將可能使得未來農業勞動力更為老化。對此，建議應投入機械設備於降低農業產出和運輸過程中的勞力付出，改善中高齡勞工工作環境和減少職業傷害。
;Similar to other advanced countries, employment structure changes substantially over the past four decades in Taiwan, from the industrial to the service sector. At the same time, the speed of population aging increases rapidly in Taiwan. This paper examines the impact of population aging on employment share among industries. Based on the employment share panel data at county’s level, calculated from the “Manpower Utilization Survey”, this study estimates the impact of population aging on employment share by the employment share panel data fixed effect model. Owing to the endogeneity between employment share and population aging, this paper also proposes plausible instrumental variables and uses the two-stage least square estimation for analysis. In addition to the analysis on the changes in the employment share of the three major sectors, this study explores the impact of population aging for each one-digit industry. The structural changes in employment share for counties classified as aging societies, are particularly analyzed.
The empirical results show that aging is negatively related to the employment shares of the primary sector. Despite of its nonsignificant effect on the secondary sector, population aging decreases Manufacturing employment shares, but increases that of the Construction industry. For the tertiary sector, population aging leads to higher employment shares, in particular, for industries of Business, Finance, Insurance and Real estate, Public Administration, and Social and Personal services. The escalation of population aging intensifies the employment shares reduction in Manufacturing; yet, it increases the employment share of Business and Public Administration, and Social and Personal Services. Moreover, middle- and old-aged workers tend to work in the sector of agriculture when they increases their participation in the labor market.
Based on the empirical results, this paper suggests that the governmental authority ought to value the changes in the employment structure and the effect of labor supply changes on the changes, especially when the aging process amplifies. Enhancing the rate of labor force participation rate in younger worker and the middle- and old-aged people may mitigate the problem of the rapid shrink in employment in Manufacture, and that of the rapid expansion in Public Administration, Social and Personal Services industries. Furthermore, it is important for the governmental authority to realize that the labor force in agriculture sector might age quickly. This paper thus suggests the governmental authority promoting Agricultural sector’s machinery and equipment investments, so as to improve the working environment and occupational injuries for the middle- and old-aged workers. |
