運用線性迴歸改善民航機故障率與派遣可靠度

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Title:	運用線性迴歸改善民航機故障率與派遣可靠度
Authors:	王凱弘;Wang, Kai-Hung
Contributors:	工業管理研究所在職專班
Keywords:	航機維護;故障率;派遣可靠度;線性迴歸;aircraft maintenance;failure rate;dispatch reliability;linear regression;MRO
Date:	2021-01-06
Issue Date:	2021-03-18 16:42:38 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	航機維護是飛安與可靠率並重的產業，近年來由於中美貿易衝突與新冠肺炎肆虐，各國採取保護政策，造成國際航班減少，使得貨運需求增加，民航業者改變現有機隊運輸模式，增加貨運或客載貨航班，使得貨運營收不減反增，伴隨而來的是航機系統零附件會有更多的磨耗，隨時可能引發航機故障，造成航班延誤，降低航機派遣可靠度，這是航空業者必須關心的議題。本研究主題為改善民航機故障率與派遣可靠度，藉由文獻探討航機系統故障率與派遣可靠度的定義，以及線性迴歸的統計原理，了解線性迴歸可以用於小樣本與各個產業分析，由於台灣的腹地不大，各航空之同型機機隊皆不超過30架，選擇研究個案之相同機型的民航機為研究對象，研究資料為小樣本，收集特定期間之航機故障與派遣資訊，採用線性迴歸為研究方法。資料經由應用軟體EXCEL，將其轉換運算為航機系統故障率與派遣可靠度作為研究資料，研究驗證首先將研究資料檔案，匯入統計分析軟體SAS-EG，然後選擇四種自變數選取模式，包含同時選擇法、前進選擇法、向後削去法與逐步選擇法，設定信賴水準α為0.1，依序執行線性迴歸運算，最後分析比較四種選擇法之統計報表。研究結果顯示依照派遣可靠度預測值，由低至高依序安排航機檢修順序，可以改善航機派遣的可靠度；反之，安排機隊之航機執行派遣任務，依照派遣可靠度預測值，由最高至低依序值勤，可避免航機系統突發故障。另外檢修故障率最嚴重的航機系統，依照迴歸方程式的迴歸係數，由低至高依序執行特別維護檢修工作，可同時改善其系統故障率與派遣可靠度。總結上述研究結果，將有助於改善航機故障率與派遣可靠度，對於民航機維護應有所參考。;Aircraft MRO industry emphasizes safety and reliability. Recently, the China-US trade conflict and raging COVID-19, so many countries have adopted protective policies, resulting in flights decreased and freight demand increased. Airlines also changed the existing fleet to increase Cargo flights for revenue. There will be more aircraft system wear, which may cause aircraft failure and reduce dispatch reliability. It is an issue that the airlines must be concerned about. According to the research theme, we study the literature to understand the definition of failure rate and dispatch reliability, also the statistical principles of linear regression, and know that linear regression can be used for small samples and analysis of various industries. In Taiwan, the same type aircraft fleet does not exceed 30, the research data is small sample, so linear regression selected as the research method. Select a specific period to collect information of the aircraft failure and dispatch collected, then data is converted into the system failure rate and dispatch reliability through EXCEL. The research verification first imports the research data into SAS-EG, then selects 4 independent variable selection modes, including simultaneous selection method and 3 stepwise selection methods, perform linear regression in sequence with the significance level set as to 0.1, finally, compare the statistical reports. The research results show that aircraft maintenance arranged in order from low to high of the predicted value of dispatch reliability, which can improve the aircraft dispatch reliability; conversely, aircraft arranged to fly in order from high to low of the predicted value of dispatch reliability, which can avoid system failures. In addition, the aircraft system special maintenance and repair work are performed based on the regression coefficient of the system failure rate, which can improve the system failure rate and dispatch reliability. Summarizing the above mentioned research results should be a reference for civil aircraft maintenance.
Appears in Collections:	[Executive Master of Industrial Management] Electronic Thesis & Dissertation

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