| 摘要: | 隨著國內汽車業銷售競爭的白熱化，國產生車與進口車的銷售量隨著國人薪資水準的提升、物質的慾望、關稅的降低等因素，國產車的銷售量與進口車銷售量的占比愈來愈接近，進口車的銷售量影響到了國內製造車廠的生存，因此對於營運銷售預測更顯得格外的重要。
經銷商銷售主管如何去評估或者用什麼樣的方法去評估，銷售預測對於直接面對顧客的銷售顧問是不是有效的，銷售主管如何運用在管理面，在眾多的影響因素中找到合理性且較簡單的方式提供銷售主管使用，而非憑著經驗法則。
一般銷售據點主管對於各據點的銷售預測，依據總公司或總代理所獲得年度銷售預測當作是一個指標，因此銷售預測預估的方式會參考每月的趨勢及過去歷史的銷售作為判斷的基礎，接著訂下每月應可銷售的目標。預測在汽車領域的研究上，許多學者是以預測各國家的整體的銷售預測表現，因此總量的預估的準確性也同時是生產製造及供應鏈重要的資訊，對於各品牌的年度銷售量的預測是一個評估與競爭品牌的差距的衡量方式，預測的準確性的影響因素隨著使用預測的技術及法的不同所呈現的結果，也會隨著研究者的假設及決定的影響顯著因素表現出預測的成效。
本研究方法是以經銷商的潛客管理資料，分別是來店客、來電客、網路客戶、舊客續購、舊客介紹、親友介紹、零服介紹、外展客戶及開拓等九大顧客來源進行探討，研究的方法是使用迴歸進行資料的分析，結果顯示潛客資料的來源為來店客、來電客、舊客介紹及親友介紹等四項自變數具有顯著性，預測結果的精確度大於90%的水準，除了2020年預測精確度低於90%，其影響因素還需要更多的資料去驗證。使用統計的方法預估未來的銷售量，實證的結果顯示最佳迴歸式對於實務上的運用是有根據的，所運用的數據是經銷商顧客管理的資料來源，因此能較準確的提供銷售主管作未來預估銷售目標的一個方法。
關鍵詞：銷售預測、迴歸應用、汽車銷售流程
;In this paper, the sales forecast made by the head office or general agent is used as an indicator. Therefore, the sales forecast is based on the monthly trend and the past sales history, and then the sales target is set for each month. In the research of automobile field, many scholars predict the overall sales forecast performance of each country, so the accuracy of the total forecast is also an important information for the production, manufacturing and supply chain. The forecast of the annual sales volume of each brand is a way to evaluate the gap with the competitive brands. Factors that influence the accuracy of the prediction depend on the results of different forecasting techniques and methods used, as well as the impact of significant factors on the researcher′s assumptions and decisions.
This research method is based on the potential customer management data of the dealers, namely, the walk-in customer, the call-in customer, the internet customer, the old customer, the old customer, the friends and relatives customer, the service customer, the outside display customer and the development of the nine customer sources are discussed. The research method is to use regression analysis of the data. The results show that the sources of potential customers′ data are four independent variables, i.e., walk-in customers, call-in customers, old customers and relative customers, which are significant. The accuracy of the prediction results is greater than 90%, except that the prediction accuracy of 2020 is lower than 90%, and the influencing factors need more data to verify. The statistical method is used to estimate the future sales volume. The empirical results show that the best regression method is valid for the practical application. The data used is the source of dealer customer management, so it can provide the sales manager with a more accurate method to estimate the future sales target.
Keywords: sales forecast, regression, sales process |
