美中貿易戰爭對臺灣出口的影響： 以資通與視聽產品為例

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Title:	美中貿易戰爭對臺灣出口的影響：以資通與視聽產品為例
Authors:	陳怡芳;Chen, Yi-Fang
Contributors:	產業經濟研究所在職專班
Keywords:	美中貿易戰;資通與視聽產品;普通最小平方法;差異中之差異分析模型;The US-China trade war;ICT and audio-visual products;OLS;DID
Date:	2021-07-21
Issue Date:	2021-12-07 12:21:46 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	現今國際貿易盛行，許多國家透過貿易和投資使經濟快速成長，然而國與國間的貿易摩擦不斷發生，例如近年美國與中國之間的貿易紛爭，起因於兩國長年貿易不平衡等因素，進而演變成美中兩國之貿易戰爭。臺灣因位處四面環海，經貿發展以出口貿易為主，美中兩國皆為臺灣主要出口國，美中貿易戰勢必影響臺灣出口發展策略。為探討美中貿易戰期間，美國301課稅清單對臺灣資通與視聽產品所造成的影響，本研究以2010年至2020年所出口之貨品號列8471、8517、8518、8523、8528進行分析，並加入美元指數與美、中、歐、日四國之進口值，透過普通最小平方法和差異中之差異分析模型，分析美中貿易戰是否對臺灣資通與視聽產品造成影響。實證結果顯示，在美中貿易戰的影響下，多數資通與視聽產品的出口值和出口率皆有所成長，證實臺灣企業確實有將資通與視聽產品之相關製造產能遷回臺灣生產的趨勢。;International trade is the key to economic growth. Many countries derive substantial benefits from the global trade and investment. However, it often leads to economic conflicts, such as the US-China Trade War. The US has accused China of unfair trading practices and intellectual property theft. Taiwan is an island country, so it heavily relies on exports and is greatly affected by disputes between countries. This research discusses the impact of the US-China trade war on Taiwan’s ICT and audio-visual products listed in Section 301 Product List. Extracting the export of Taiwan HS Code 8471, 8517, 8518, 8523, and 8528, from 2010 to 2020, adding control variables, namely the US dollar index and the import of the US, China, Europe, and Japan, and using the ordinary least square method (OLS) and the difference in difference (DID), the research analyzes whether the US-China trade war affects Taiwan’s ICT and audio-visual products. The results revealed that the export of ICT and audio-visual products increased due to the US-China trade war. In other words, companies do move production processes back to Taiwan.
Appears in Collections:	[Executive Master of Industrial Economics] Electronic Thesis & Dissertation

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