美中貿易戰對美國進口之影響 -以網通產品為例

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题名:	美中貿易戰對美國進口之影響 -以網通產品為例
作者:	李秀玲;LEE, HSIU-LING
贡献者:	產業經濟研究所在職專班
关键词:	美中貿易戰;網通產品;複迴歸分析普通最小平方法;差異中的差異法;tariff;networking;OLS;DID
日期:	2021-07-21
上传时间:	2021-12-07 12:22:24 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	現今是經濟高度全球化，國與國間的發展是非常緊密，美國是全球最重要的經濟體，美國與中國為台灣前兩大貿易夥伴，美中貿易戰不僅影響經貿層面，更是擴及金融貨幣方面，美元升值、人民幣貶值，使擁有人民幣淨部位的台商出現匯損危機，美中貿易戰為台灣經貿與金融層面皆產生顯著影響。台灣網通產品占臺灣出口值約6成，而台商長期在大陸設廠，其為台灣電子供應鏈最重要的生產基地。故本研究將隨著美中貿易戰開啟，藉由供應鏈的重新調整佈局方向，並透過各國網通相關產品美國進口值來探究是否對台灣及其他國家有無顯著影響。研究最主要探討美中貿易戰對美國進口的影響，以網通產品2010年至2020年台灣(國家)至美國(國家)的進口金額數據進行迴歸分析，並將時間點分為兩部分，一為美中貿易戰前與美中貿易戰後共11年132個月份的網通產品進口美國金額作為研究標的，數據來源DataWeb，由美國國際貿易委員會（USITC）提供選定HS code：8517、8542、8473與8471為主要網通產業標的物，選取中國大陸、臺灣、南韓、越南、馬來西亞、墨西哥進口美國網通產品金額資料(單位:億美元)。本研究採用複迴歸分析普通最小平方法(OLS)觀察各國在美中貿易戰前後美國的進口金額變化。另以美國自中國進口金額為實驗組，以臺灣、南韓、越南、馬來西亞、墨西哥進口美國網通產品金額為對照組，設定時間點、虛擬變數、時間序列的資料來討論前後差異，以差異中的差異法（Different in Different，DID）做為模型分析工具，並排除其他時間趨勢或政策因素干擾，使研究可以更清楚瞭解到美中貿易戰前後對美國進口的影響。;Nowadays, the economy is highly globalized, and the development between countries is very close. United States plays the most important role in global economy. The United States and China are Taiwan’s top two trading partners. The US-China trade war not only affects the economic and trade level, but also extends to finance and currency aspects. In terms of financial currencies, the appreciation of the U.S. dollar and the depreciation of the RMB have caused an exchange loss crisis for those Taiwan companies with net positions in the RMB. The US-China trade war has had a significant impact on Taiwan’s economic, trade and financial aspects. Taiwan’s networking products stands for about 60% of Taiwan’s export value, and Taiwanese companies have long established factories in the mainland, making it the most important production base for Taiwan’s electronics supply chain. Therefore, with the start of the US-China trade war. We re-adjust the direction of this study to the supply chain and explore whether it has a significant impact on Taiwan and other countries through the US import value of related products of Networking in various countries. The research mainly discusses the impact of the US-China trade war on US imports. The regression analysis is based on the data of the import amount of Networking products from Taiwan (country) to the US (country) from 2010 to 2020, and the time point is divided into two parts, one is before the US-China trade war, the other is after the US-China trade war in which the Networking products has imported to the United States for 11 years and 132 months and was used as the research target. The data source is DataWeb, provided by the US International Trade Commission (USITC). Selected HS codes: 8517, 8542, 8473 and 8471 is the main Networking industry subject matter, and the amount of imports of US Networking products from China, Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Mexico (unit: billion US dollars) is selected. This study uses multiple regression analysis of the ordinary least square method (OLS) to observe the changes in the amount of imports from the United States before and after the US-China trade war. In addition, the amount imports to the United States from China is used as the experimental group, and the amount of imports of US Networking products from Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Mexico is IV used as the control group. Time points, dummy variables, and time series are set to discuss the before and after differences. Different in Different (DID) is used as a model analysis tool, and other time trends or policy factors are excluded, so that we can clearly understand the impact of the US-China trade war on US imports from this research.
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