土壤液化風險更新後對住宅價格之影響-以臺北市為例;The Effect of Soil-liquefaction Risk Information Update on Housing Prices：Evidence from Taipei, Taiwan

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题名:	土壤液化風險更新後對住宅價格之影響-以臺北市為例;The Effect of Soil-liquefaction Risk Information Update on Housing Prices：Evidence from Taipei, Taiwan
作者:	吳懿真;Wu, Yi-Chen
贡献者:	經濟學系
关键词:	土壤液化;風險認知;房價;差異中之差異法;Soil liquefaction;Risk perception;Housing prices;Difference-in-Differences
日期:	2021-08-30
上传时间:	2021-12-07 12:51:29 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	揭露正確的資訊及更新風險訊息對於房地產市場來說非常重要，能幫助買家與賣家做出正確的決策，並促進市場效率。本文的研究問題為：土壤液化風險更新後，對住宅價格之影響。本研究利用2016年3月14日～2021年1月31日臺北市的住宅交易資料與政府歷次公告的土壤液化風險地圖進行實證分析，採取差異中之差異法，估計土壤液化地圖更新後，風險產生變化的區域其住宅價格是否受到影響。實證結果發現，地圖更新後導致的風險變化確實會影響住宅價格。在風險地圖第一次更新後，移入高風險的區域，住宅的每坪售出價格會顯著下跌約3.4%；在風險上升一個等級的區域，每坪售出價格會下跌約3.8%。風險地圖第二次更新後，移出高風險的區域，住宅每坪售出價格顯著下跌1.8%。在風險地圖第三次更新後，移出高風險的區域，住宅每坪售出價格會增加4.3%；風險上升兩級的區域，住宅每坪售出價格會下跌2.9%。 ;Posting correct information and updating risk information is very important for the housing market. It can help buyers and sellers make correct decisions and promote the efficiency of market. The research question of this study is: The effect of soil-liquefaction information update on housing prices. This study used the housing transaction data of Taipei City from March 14, 2016 to January 31, 2021 and the soil liquefaction risk map announced by the government to conduct an empirical analysis. In the empirical results we found that the risk changes caused by the map update would indeed affect residential prices. The results show that after the first update of the risk map, moving into a high-risk area, the housing price would drop significantly by around 3.4%. In this area which the risk rose by one grade, the housing price would drop by around 3.8%. After the second update of the risk map, moving out of high-risk areas, the housing price would drop significantly by 1.8%. Then, after the third update of the risk map, moving out of high-risk areas would increase the housing price by 4.3%. In this area which the risk rose by two grades would decrease housing price by 2.9%.
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