The Impact of Trade Policy Uncertainty on Firms’ Cash Dividend Policy

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Title:	The Impact of Trade Policy Uncertainty on Firms’ Cash Dividend Policy
Authors:	黃俊瑋;Huang, Chun-Wei
Contributors:	財務金融學系
Keywords:	貿易政策不確定性;現金股利政策;財務限制;代理問題;Trade policy uncertainty;Cash dividend;R&D;Financial constraint;Agency problems
Date:	2022-06-23
Issue Date:	2022-07-14 13:44:06 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	本文旨在探討貿易政策不確定性對於中國上市公司之現金股利的影響。以2000~2019年間的中國上市公司作為研究樣本，我們發現當政府的貿易政策不確定性愈高時，公司將會降低現金股利的發放，在增加研究及發展支出(R&D)的情況下，公司亦會減緩現金股利的規模，當公司減少R&D時，實證結果顯示出相反的結果。進一步考慮財務限制的因素後，我們發現，財務限制並不會改變R&D上升的公司之現金股利政策減緩趨勢，然而，R&D下降且具有高度財務限制的公司，卻不會增加現金股利的發放，與R&D下降公司增加現金股利發放的結果不一。於子樣本分析中，我們考慮了代理問題，並使用現金流量及資本結構兩個變數進行實證分析，我們發現，具有高度債權比重的公司，在高貿易政策不確定性時，會減少現金股利的發放，此結果同樣表現於低現金流量持有的公司中。於內生性問題，我們使用羅吉斯迴歸模型(Logit model)及兩階段最小平方法迴歸模型(2SLS)進行實證分析，實證結果仍然支持我們的主樣本分析。本文建議政府應適時注意貿易政策制定的不確定性及平穩發展貿易政策，同時，公司應關注貿易政策的變化，考慮風險並調整司現金股利的發放。;This paper examines the effect of Trade Policy Uncertainty (TPU) on firms’ cash dividend policy in China from 2000–2019. We find that TPU would negatively influence China firms’ cash dividend policy and force firms to reduce cash dividends when facing higher TPU. Additionally, industries and firms are located on different districts exhibit diverse reactions to TPU on cash dividends. In R&D firms, we find that R&D increased firms exhibit negative response to cash dividends no matter firms with financial constraint or unconstraint. On the contrary, R&D decreased and constrained firms surge cash dividends when suffering TPU owing to potential agency problems. Overall, TPU concretely affects firms’ cash dividend policy and the results are still robust when considering R&D, financial constraint and agency problems. This paper provides an useful insight that firms must consider cash dividend policy into account during high uncertainty period.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Finance] Electronic Thesis & Dissertation

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