布林通道交易策略實證-以台灣指數期貨為例

NCUIR > School of Management at National Central University > Executive Master of Finance Management > Electronic Thesis & Dissertation > Item 987654321/89552

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ir.lib.ncu.edu.tw/handle/987654321/89552

Title:	布林通道交易策略實證-以台灣指數期貨為例
Authors:	張伯偉;Chang, Bo-Wei
Contributors:	財務金融學系在職專班
Keywords:	布林通道;技術分析;退休規劃;交易策略;Bolling band;Tech analysis;Trend trade;Moving Average
Date:	2022-07-25
Issue Date:	2022-10-04 11:45:12 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	技術分析是許多人在進行股市、商品、期貨等交易時判斷的根據，比起較需要長時間做資料收集及分析的基本面分析，需要去判斷個別公司及整體大環境的影響，包含原物料價格、政策、地域衝突及產業分析等等，大部分非專業人士投資仍是以當下的市場技術指標作為進出點或者加減碼的判斷，國人投資股數多為短線進出獲利出脫模式，故可以看到新聞媒體不斷提及的隨機指標及均線判斷(包含月線、季線、半年線、年線、十年線)，但是交易人往往在乎交易手續費及上繳政府的稅收，卻忽略了交易股票還要負擔買賣之間的價差(點差)，這往往比起手續費及稅費來得更高，故短線進出獲利需要負擔更多的交易成本，故波段操作降低短線進出所需負擔的成本且能夠避免短期間震盪而改變原先交易策略。若以波段交易為主的交易策略較多使用的為布林通道、MACD及季均線，首先本研究將以布林通道做為研究方向，因為布林通道具有月均線、兩倍標準差及上中下線同向及異向的特點，可以做為多方力道、空方力道及市場轉折點的判斷。 MACD及季均線是更為長期的市場技術指標，近年來金融市場及價格的震盪更為明顯，若投資人非以長期持有做為其投資策略，較容易有股市價格已先明顯回落或上漲，MACD及季均線才出現賣出訊號或買入訊號，以短波段操作較容易變成是追買追跌的判斷。布林通道兩倍標準差的特色也與常態分配有關，常態分配下股市價格應落於95%的機率的上下緣通道內，雖仍有上下線鈍化及寬尾的問題需要做其他判斷，但是仍是較為適合投資人做為主要交易策略的指標。希望此研究可以幫助自己或者其他人對於退休規劃有所幫助，近年來房價及物價的上漲讓許多人深深感受到無力，雖然過去國人平均薪資有所上漲，但是薪資成長感不上通膨及物價，故以投資的資本利得幫忙降低生活負擔的壓力或準備退休金較為可行，因為工作能夠成長的薪資較為有限且每人每日工作時間有限，若純粹以薪資作為退休規劃的主要方式，較難能夠在退休後能夠享有一定的生活水平。 ;How to use technical analysis to plan your retirement, and find out your suitable trading strategy, and whether you can find a trend in market trading. Many investors frequently move in and out of the stock market, resulting in high transaction costs. Develop an appropriate trading strategy and control the number of trades to reduce the chance of misjudged trading. Through Bollinger Bands and monthly moving averages to determine market trends, enter and exit transactions. I hope this research can help myself or others in retirement planning. The rise in housing prices and prices in recent years has made many people feel powerless. Although the average salary of Chinese people has risen in the past, the sense of salary growth is not as high as inflation. Therefore, it is more feasible to use the capital gains of investment to help reduce the pressure of living burden or prepare for retirement, because the salary that can be grown in work is relatively limited and the daily working hours of each person are limited. If salary is the main method of retirement planning, it is relatively It is difficult to be able to enjoy a certain standard of living after retirement.
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