有鑒於新手機車駕駛人的高事故發生率，歷年來交通部公路總局提出多項與機車相關之考照法案改革，希望藉此提升新手機車騎士的風險意識及培養他們正確的用路觀念。本文欲評量下列兩項由公路總局所實施之考照法案變革的成效，第一項變革為民國104年7月1日擴增筆試內容及題目數量，第二項變革為民國107年12月1日延長道路安全講習時間及調整考照流程順序。我們想探討有經歷法案變革之新手機車騎士，在領照後2-3年內是否會降低涉入交通違規及事故的可能性與平均頻率。本文研究資料採用內政部警政署交通事故調查報告表與交通部公路總局駕籍資料及違規資料，使用羅吉特迴歸模型及負二項迴歸模型進行實證分析。 關於第一項法案變革，本文綜合新手機車騎士領照後三年內之表現，研究結果顯示有經過變革之駕駛在道路上發生違規及事故的可能性與平均頻率較無經歷者低，發生之可能性分別降低3.4%、1.8%，表示交通部公路總局修訂機車筆試題目之改革有助於提升新手機車駕駛之道路安全意識及防禦駕駛之觀念，降低新手駕駛發生事故及違規之可能性。關於第二項法案變革，研究結果顯示有經歷延長道路安全講習之新手機車騎士在領照後2年內發生事故及違規之可能性與平均次數皆不小於沒有經歷者，表示延長道路安全講習教育時間對新手機車騎士減少事故及違規發生之可能性並無助益，即該政策效果無法顯現。;To improve novice motorcyclists′ road safety awareness, Ministry of Transportation and Communications (MOTC) has introduced several reforms on the testing system of motorcycle licenses. The study examines whether two of the reforms in the licensing system were associated with reductions in novice riders′ violations and collisions after being licensed. The first reform was to expand the written test bank on July 1, 2014, and the second one was to extend the time of road safety class from 90 to 120 minutes on December 1, 2017. Using the data from the MOTC and National Police Agency, we applied logistic and negative binomial models to evaluate the effects of two reforms on novice riders’ violations and accidents in 1-3 years after being licensed. Our study found that reforming the test bank improved novice motorcyclist road safety. Novice riders exposed to the reform have a lower likelihood of violations and collisions by 3.4% and 1.8%, respectively, within three years after being licensed compared to the novices who did not expose to the reform. Regarding the reform of road safety class, our empirical results showed that the likelihood and frequency of violations and collisions in the two-year post-licensed period for novices who experienced the reform are no less than those who have not experienced it. In other words, extending the duration of road safety class has no effect on novice motorcyclist road safety.
