| 摘要: | 印尼的營建產業仍持續成長中，因此許多國外的廠商大多希望能夠進入該市場。然而比對2010-2013年外國廠商的投資資料顯示，外國廠商的直接投資金額由美金618.4百萬降至$353.7百萬。而其原因有許多是來自專案時程的延誤，此亦說明外國廠商對於印尼營建產業缺乏信心。過去研究發現，印尼營建產業的延遲原因有83%來自營造廠商(不可原諒延遲原因)。然而過往研究使用的主要方法為相對重要性指標(Relative Importance Index)，並沒有使用進階的方法亦沒有證明所發現的原因是否確實重要，因此相關研究的成果仍有改善空間。本研究透過問卷調查並依據統計結果找出印尼營建產業時程延遲的主要不可原諒延遲原因，並利用貝氏認知網路(Bayesian Belief Network, BBN)建構推估不可原諒延遲原因發生機率之模式。本研究發現西印尼的23個重要延遲原因中，主要原因為生產力(發生機率為0.3323)、成本推估錯誤(發生機率為0.3267)、不良的管理者對工人的監督與控制(發生機率為0.3029)；在中印尼的28個重要延遲原因中，主要原因為社會文化問題(發生機率為0.4667)、缺乏具能力的分包商(發生機率0.3403)、公眾活動的影響(發生機率0.3400)；在東印尼的34個重要延遲原因中，主要原因為缺乏具能力的分包商(發生機率0.3911)、不良的契約(發生機率0.3600)、不良的管理者對工人的監督與控制(發生機率為0.3556)。此外，本研究亦將研究成果與類似經濟狀況的開發中國家研究成果進行比較，發現即使對於不同類型的專案，開發中國家所面臨的時程延遲原因大多類似。;Development of the construction industry in Indonesia continues to grow up, therefore many foreign construction companies want to participate. However, the value of foreign direct investment realization during 2010 until 2013 is decreased from $618,4 million to $353,7 million. It’s happening because of schedule delays affecting the level of confidence by a foreign company in the construction industry in Indonesia. Previous researches showed that 83% of the delay causes in Indonesia’s construction projects are within the contractor’s control (non excusable delays). Those previous studies attempted to identify delay causes using Relative Importance Index (RII) without advanced analysis to prove whether the causes were significantly affecting delay or not. If the solution only based on the RII ranking, it could have some shortages especially for cause-effect relationship for such causes. So that, this study tries to identify the significant non-excusable delay causes based on statistical analysis then proposes the solutions using probability models by Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). The research results show that there are 23 significant causes contributing in West of Indonesia, 28 causes in Central of Indonesia, and 34 causes in East of Indonesia. Moreover, this research identifies that the most affecting causes are labor productivity (probability: 0,3323), cost estimation errors (0,3267) and poor monitoring and control between supervision and labor (0,3092) in West of Indonesia. In the Central of Indonesia, the top-three affecting causes are social cultural problems (0,4667), lack of subcontractor’s skill (0,3403), and disturbance public activities (0,3400). Whereas in East of Indonesia, lack of subcontractor’s skill (0,3911), poor means contracting (0,3600) and poor monitoring and control between supervision and labor (0,3556) are the most affecting delay causes. In this research, identified non-excusable delay causes are also compared with the resutls from other developing countries that have the same economy level to Indonesia. The identified delay causes, even by different project types, are similar to those in other developing countries. Furthermore, this study employs Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) to predict the value of occurrence probability of non-excusable delay. Through examining by case sudy, the delay forecasting is similar with the actual percentage of time-overrun in each case study. In sum, the research results provide possible solutions to prevent construction schedule delays in Indonesia. |
