本研究透過系統動力學模式-VENSIM模擬氣候變遷對臺灣南部美濃和旗山研究區域地下水資源的影響，結合水文地質參數，並以臺灣氣候變遷推估資訊與調適知識平台（TCCIP）提供的未來氣候情境數據為資料庫，進行多情境模擬。 研究結果顯示，在不同的氣候變遷情境下（如SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5），美濃和旗山研究區域的地下水位出現顯著變化。在SSP5-8.5情境下，相對其他情境有較長時間且密集的降雨分布，使SSP5-8.5情境與SSP3-7.0情境相比，預測降雨量對地下水的補注效益更大於消耗。不同模式的模擬地下水位結果表現出差異性，而相同模式不同情境下的整體趨勢也並不相同，結果表明，氣候變遷導致的極端降雨事件，確實會對地下水位造成影響，但從近未來到世紀末的變化所得出，長時間模擬地下水位會使後半段的模擬結果被發散。 本研究建議應隨著不同模擬結果來對照當時期之地下水位來進行水資源的管理和保護，並針對不同未來時期下的地下水位變化趨勢，制定相應的適應策略，在用水方面採取有效措施，減少對地下水的過度抽取，促進水資源的可持續利用。 ;This study employs the system dynamics model VENSIM to simulate the impact of climate change on groundwater resources in the Meinong and Qishan areas of southern Taiwan. By integrating hydrogeological parameters and utilizing future climate scenario data provided by the Taiwan Climate Change Projection Information and Adaptation Knowledge Platform（TCCIP）, multi-scenario simulations were conducted. The results show significant variations in groundwater levels in the Meinong and Qishan study areas under different climate change scenarios（such as SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5）. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the prolonged and intensive rainfall distribution results in greater groundwater recharge benefits compared to the SSP3-7.0 scenario. The simulation results of groundwater levels from different national models display variability, and the overall trends under different scenarios within the same model also differ. These findings indicate that extreme rainfall events induced by climate change indeed affect groundwater levels. However, the changes observed from the near future to the end of the century suggest that long-term simulations of groundwater levels can cause the latter part of the simulation results to diverge. This study recommends that water resource management and protection should be guided by comparing the groundwater levels during different simulation periods. Appropriate adaptation strategies should be formulated based on the trends of groundwater level changes under various future scenarios. Effective measures should be taken to reduce excessive groundwater extraction and promote the sustainable use of water resources.
