本文主要參考 Compa and Goldberg (2005) 的模型為基本架構, 透過滾輪回歸(Rolling Regression) 的估計方式, 研究台灣近年來的匯率轉嫁程度大小與走勢以及對於造成其轉嫁走勢的因素加以探討。 本文所研究的資料期間為1982 年1 月至2013 年12 月, 結果發現台灣的匯率轉嫁程度是呈現遞減的情況, 尤其近 10 年來其情況更為明顯。而遞減的匯率轉嫁程度對於台灣央行在貨幣政策施行、貿易失衡問題的解決上都有其幫助。本文認 為有 5 點因素能解釋其匯率轉嫁程度遞減的情況, 最主要是由於台灣近年自中國 進口比例明顯變化, 且近 10 年來人民幣的匯率政策有所改變, 以及各國廠商的訂價策略改變等, 由於全球化的影響以及國際生產結構的改變, 都是造成匯率轉嫁程度遞減的因素。;We build a Markup model which follows the empirical model from Compa and Goldberg (2005). We estimate the degree of exchange rate into import price, tendency and discuss the reasons in Taiwan by Rolling regression. This paper investigates the aggregate import price data from January 1982 to December 2013 in Taiwan. The result shows that the degree of exchange rate pass-through is declining in Taiwan, which helps for central bank to achieve the purposes of monetary policy, and explain trade imbalance problem. We provide the five factors to explain why exchange rate was declining significantly. This decline to the significant increase in the ratio of imports from China, and we also find the evidences that foreign firms are setting their prices increasingly with their competitors price. These are the factors of causing exchange rate pass-through to Taiwan import price of declining.
