本研究主要探討分析師對於盈餘成份的認定是否會反應在分析師預測行為上，藉此了解資本市場的短期累積異常報酬是否會因分析師預測報告中對於盈餘成分資訊而有顯著影響，並再進一步透過資本市場的長期累積異常報酬，解析分析師盈餘預測中恆常性與暫時性成分，何者較具價值攸關。而實證結果發現分析師對於盈餘成份認定的高低差異確實會與預測誤差存在反向顯著關係，而當分析師藉由預測報告傳遞對企業恆常性盈餘看法時，市場短天期的反應會受到分析師報告的發布而有所影響；此外本研究也測得分析師在短期盈餘預測中，恆常性盈餘成分相較於暫時性盈餘成份， 對長期累積異常報酬更具有正向邊際解釋力，藉此我們也可以知悉分析師盈餘預測中恆常性盈餘成份具價值攸關。 ;The purpose of this study is to explore whether the analysts′ recognition of earring components will reflect on analysts′ prediction. So as to understand whether short-windowed cumulative abnormal returns will be significantly affected by information from the analysts′ reports. Then we will go further to understand whether the permanent and transitory components of the analyst′s earning forecast reflect on the long-windowed cumulative abnormal returns and which will be more value-relevant. The empirical results show that the differences in analysts′ perceptions of earnings components do affect their forecast behavior. The market′s short-term response will also be affected by analysts when they issue the earning forecast to convey their views on companies′ permanent earnings. In addition, our study also finds that the permanent earning components in the analysts′ short-term earnings forecasts have a positive marginal explanatory on the long-windowed cumulative abnormal returns. And permanent earning components will be more significant than the transitory earning components. We can also know that the analysts’ permanent earnings components have value-relevant with the capital market through the perception of the analyst forecast report.
