最高經理人處理危機的能力，是帶領企業走出金融低谷的關鍵，而對於人力資本的處置則關乎公司未來的存亡。直觀反應的裁員，即便可以順利度過短期危機，但也可能因為認知偏誤，而降低最高經理人長期決策的成效。 本文欲了解經理人過度自信的特質是否在危機當前影響公司的人力決策，採用排序性常態機率模型，去驗證危機當前最高經理人的人力裁減決策情形。發現當最高經理人有過度自信的傾向時，有增加員工的趨勢。而在公司規模較小，或是非專業治理的情況下，會有人力裁減的傾向。保住公司重要的人力資本，將資源進行適當的調整，增加生產技術的能力，才不會陷入只能透過減少人力以增加生產力的陷阱。 ;As we can know, CEOs’ ability of problem solving is one of key that the company can get through economic downturn. How the CEO deal with their human capital could be crucial for their company’s future. Downsizing may be the first thing comes to CEOs’ mind when they face some environment challenges. However, using downsizing to rescue the company, it might only work for a short run. For a long run, the cognitive bias pop up at first sight on decision making could ruin everything. This article tries to figure whether overconfident CEOs might tend to use downsizing in the economic downturn. We adopt ordered probit model to analyze the data and find that if manager has a tendency of overconfidence he or she might hire more employee in the economic downturn. If the companies’ size are small or they are nonprofessional management, the overconfident CEO might tend to downsize in the economic downturn. Rather than cutting employees, keeping key human capital, reallocating resources and try to increase technology ability could be a more effective way to higher production.
