半導體產業是美國最具競爭力的產業之一，2018年美國的半導體出口金額為483億美元左右，是美國第四大產業，因此半導體的市場榮枯左右了美國與全球的經濟很大的幅度，由美國費城證券交易所編製的費城半導體指數則可代表美國半導體產業的興盛程度，且此指數也有證券化的商品可以做投資。故本研究主要目的是探討機構投資人情緒指數與個別投資人情緒指數對美國費城半導體指數報酬率的影響。研究結果顯示，透過線性迴歸模型實證分析，機構投資人情緒指數對費城半導體指數有顯著的正向影響性，相對於個別投資人情緒指數而言也有較佳的解釋能力；接著透過Granger因果關係檢定，發現機構投資人情緒指數報酬率領先費城半導體指數報酬率之檢定結果呈現顯著，且為單向因果關係，表示機構投資人情緒指數有預測費城半導體指數的能力。;The semiconductor industry is one of the most competitive industries in the U.S. The total value of exports reached approximately $48.3 billion in 2018 which is the fourth largest industry in the U.S. Therefore, the boom-and-bust cycles of semiconductor industry plays a critical role in U.S. and global economy. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, compiled by the Philadelphia Stock Exchange, is viewed as a proxy for the U.S. semiconductor industry. The index also has financial assets for investment. The primary objective of this study examines the influence of institutional investor’s sentiment index and the individual investor’s sentiment index on Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. The results show that the institutional investor’s sentiment index has a significantly positive impact on the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index than individual investor sentiment indices through the linear regression analysis. With granger causality test, the institutional investor’s sentiment index has a significantly leading influence on the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. The causal relationship suggests that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index can actually be predicted by the institutional investor’s sentiment Index.
