| 摘要: | 根據國家發展委員會我國人口推估報告，我國自1993年成為「高齡化」社會，接著僅經過25年即進入「高齡」社會，且預估再經過7年，就將邁入「超高齡」社會。我國高齡化轉變速度與鄰近我國的日本及韓國相當，並較其他主要國家為快。一般而言，高收入人士在其職涯已累積較充沛之儲蓄，弱勢族群亦能獲得政府之額外援助，相對地，而中產階級的高齡長者因將畢生積蓄投入子女教育及購置不動產，剩餘儲蓄較難以支持安穩的退休生活，其是否能利用政府退休保障計畫並配合活化運用現有自住不動產以自製長糧，提供晚年生活之保障，已成為現今社會重視之問題。
香港與我國同為華人社會，以不動產作為財富傳承的觀念較深，亦存在人口老化嚴重的問題；質言之，香港由高齡化社會轉變成高齡社會僅29年，由高齡社會轉變成超高齡社會僅9年，且將早於我國於2022年進入超高齡社會。向來為亞洲重要國際金融中心，香港政府以「強積金」、「年金計畫」、「高齡津貼」、「安老按揭計劃」（逆向抵押貸款）、「修租易」（長者自住物業代理計劃）、「廣東計畫」及「自願醫保計劃」等各項安老產品提供永久性居民多元退休保障。由於既有文獻主要著重探討逆向抵押貸款（以房養老）之制度及發展，或以逆向抵押貸款搭配其他金融商品以進行退休規劃分析，但文獻亦顯示雖然金融商品可以帶來一定收益，但未來仍可能產生鉅額虧損，保障性較難以評估。本研究擬補足既有文獻之不足，以香港中產永久性居民夫妻為個案，分別依是否居家養老及是否有不動產傳承之需求，配合香港現行的各項退休保障計劃以進行退休後之現金流分析及個案探討。本研究旨在探討香港政府所推出之安老政策是否能提供高齡長者餘生足夠之現金流，並可能提供我國未來研擬退休保障計劃之方向。
本研究結果顯示，首先，對於無不動產傳承需求的中產夫妻，其退休生活可擁有較好之保障。其次，若有不動產傳承需求，此中產夫妻須透過子女提供協助晚年生活才得以獲得保障；然而，對能夠適應廣東或福建生活的長者而言，仍可透過「修租易」及「大灣區安老計劃」安享晚年。;According to a report issued by the National Development Council (NDC), Taiwan will soon become a super-aged society in 2025. The rate of population aging in Taiwan is similar to that in Japan and Korea, but is much higher than that in other OECD countries. In general, high-income citizens can accumulate enough wealth for a comfortable retirement. In contrast, underprivileged citizens may expect comprehensive social security assistance from the Government. However, the middle-class citizens face a challenging situation regarding their retirement; That is, having invested on the mortgages and for supporting children′s education, middle class′s remaining savings are insufficient for their retirement. Whether their existing property and the government retirement protection plan can provide the security of their retirement in the future has become of vast importance to nowadays.
Hong Kong and Taiwan are both typical Chinese societies; As the elderly are expected to be able to pass their property possessions onto next generations as heritage. Having served as a major international financial center in Asia, Hong Kong is facing the problems of population aging as well. The Hong Kong Government provides several retirement schemes for the elderly, they are "Mandatory Provident Fund Schemes" (MPF), "HKMC Annuity Plan," "Old Age Living Allowance," "Reverse Mortgage Programme," "TWGHs Tenancy Management for Senior-owner Occupiers," as well as the "Voluntary Health Insurance Scheme." By contrast, the existing academic literature mainly focuses on research topics relating to “reverse mortgage loans” only, such as how the loans are designed, or how they can serve the retirees if combining with other financial investments. However, it is concerning that other financial investments may result in higher risk and subsequent financial loss for the elderly, although those investments may provide returns higher than that from risk-free deposits.
This study aims to fill the gap in the existing literature by analyzing a base case where a middle-class couple residing in Hong Kong intends to utilize their property for housing services and may also generate cash flows to cover their living stipend and medical costs after retirement. This study then analyzes four scenarios in which the typical couple will also employ various retirement schemes provided by Hong Kong Government.
The results of this study can be summarized as follows. First, supposing that the typical middle-class Hong Kong couple has no intention to leave their property to next generations, they can enjoy a comfortable retirement by using a "Reverse Mortgage Programme”. Secondly, this couple will need extra financial support for their retirement, if they intend to pass their real estate onto next generations. However, this financial difficulty can be resolved for couples who are willing to relocate to the Greater Bay Area if they also utilize both the services provided by the "TWGHs Tenancy Management" and the relocating plan specified under the "Guangdong Scheme". |
