美股三大指數與黃金對比特幣之關聯性研究

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题名:	美股三大指數與黃金對比特幣之關聯性研究
作者:	許逸華;HSU, I-HUA
贡献者:	會計研究所企業資源規劃會計碩士在職專班
关键词:	比特幣;美股指數
日期:	2021-07-26
上传时间:	2021-12-07 12:44:50 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	現今社會上有許多投資商品，每一個商品都有不同的特質以及在資產世界中扮演不同的角色。在全球金融市場遭受Covid-19的影響下，美國政府開啟量化寬鬆政策導致許多的熱錢在市場上流竄。而熱錢的首要標的除了短期會有爆炸性成長的商品以外，抗通膨的金融商品也是他們的目標之一。因此本論文將虛擬貨幣 - 比特幣當作標的，進行分析觀察市場是否將其當作是抗通膨產品，將其與同樣是抗通膨的黃金進行相關性分析以及多元迴歸分析。此外也針對美國股市的各項指標，包含那斯達克指數、費城半導體指數、以及標普500指數進行多元迴歸分析以及相關性分析。由多元迴歸分析以及相關性分析之結果，我們可以推斷不論是與那斯達克指數、費城半導體指數，或者是標普500指數，比特幣與美股各項指數呈現正相關並且相關性極高。這也代表著比特幣確實是被當作除了股票以外，另一個資金會導向的去處。此外，黃金與比特幣則相對地呈現了負相關性，這也顯示出了比特幣與黃金不同，不太會被當作是穩定的避險商品，當資金量潮來臨時大部分資金都會選擇流入比特幣而不會選擇黃金。 ? ;In today’s society, there are so many investment commodities in our world. Each commodity has different characteristics and properties to play a different role in the asset market. In 2020, the global financial market was under influence by Covid-19. The U.S government initiated the quantitative easing policy to save economic and market. However, a lot of hot money flows into market as well owning to this policy. Therefore, anti-inflationary financial products will be the primary target for this hot money. Therefore, the virtue coin – Bitcoin is taken as the target in this thesis and observes whether the market regard it as anti-inflation products or not. Conducting by multiple regression analysis and correlation analysis, the Bitcoin is compared with the indicators of US stock market, including the Nasdaq Index, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, and the S&P 500 Index. And also it is analyzed with the anti-inflation product – gold. Based on analysis results, Bitcoin is positively correlated with the U.S. stock indexes and the correlation is extremely high. This also means that Bitcoin is indeed regarded as another place where funds will be oriented in addition to stocks. In addition, gold and Bitcoin are relatively negatively correlated, which also shows that Bitcoin is unlikely to be regarded as a stable safe-haven commodity.
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