| 摘要: | 客家族群，在選舉的過程中，往往在其中扮演關鍵的角色，族群對於政治勢
力的影響不可忽視。但在投票行為研究中，卻鮮少被關注，但在競選活動中，卻是競相爭取的對象。在選舉過程中，具有一定的影響力，而影響客家族群投票的關鍵為何？欲回答此問題，本文採用選舉研究中的三大途徑：「社會學研究途徑」、「社會心理學研究途徑」、「理性抉擇途徑」，探討在2016 年總統大選中，可能影響客家選民投票抉擇的關鍵因素。本研究使用劉嘉薇（2018）「選舉研究的缺角：客家族群投票行為之研究」
所蒐集的電訪調查資料，對2016 年客家族群投票抉擇中，可能影響投票抉擇的各個因素進行「雙變數交叉分析」，檢證「自變數」與「依變數」之間的相關性。最終，根據文獻回顧擇取變數建立分析模型，以「二元勝算對數模型」進行分析。實證發現，「客家議題」、「統獨議題」、「政黨偏好」與「宗親會」是影響客家族群投票抉擇的關鍵因素，與過去不同，並非被地方派系的掌控，且非常重視議題因素，候選人應以此為參考，而非單純地認為客家族群會盲目地因為政黨顏色支持候選人，須提出客家族群重視的議題，才有機會贏得選舉。;The Hakka ethnic group often plays the key point in the election process, and the influence of ethnic groups on political forces cannot be ignored. However, in the
research of voting behavior, it has received little attention, but in the campaign, it is the object of competition. In the election process, it has a certain influence, and what is the key to affecting the voting of the Hakka ethnic group? To answer this question, this
paper adopts three approaches in electoral research:"Sociological Research Approach",
"Social Psychological Research Approach", and "Rational Choice Approach" to explore
the possible influence on Hakka voter choice in the 2016 presidential election key factor.
This study uses the data collected from the televised surveys collected by Jia-Wei Liu (2018) "The Missing Corner of Election Research: A Study of Hakka Group Voting to conduct a "bivariate crossover"2016 of the factors that may affect the
voting decision of the Hakka group Analysis" to examine the correlation between the "independent variable" and the "dependent variable". Finally, according to the literature
review, the variables were selected to establish an analysis model, and the "binary logarithmic model of odds of winning" was used for analysis. Empirical findings show that "Hakka issues", "unification and independence issues", "party preference" and "clan associations" are the key factors that affect the Hakka group′s voting decisions.
Unlike the past, they are not controlled by local factions and attach great importance to issue factor, candidates should use this as a reference, rather than simply thinking that the Hakka community will blindly support it, and they must raise issues that the Hakka community values in order to have a chance to win the election. |
