| 摘要: | 隨著台灣不動產長期以來經過多次的漲跌循環，加上地狹人稠的環境、社會變遷快速發展、人口結構的改變，國民所得提升，房屋所得比年年攀升，促使房地產升升不息，年輕人購屋更加沉重，即使中央政府不斷祭出打房政策，房價居高不下的問題依然存在，本研究為了解長期房價趨勢之變化，對桃園市桃園區及中壢區進行長期房價趨勢之探討，蒐集之資料來源為內政部不動產交易實價登錄查詢服務網，期間取自民國101年8月1日至民國110年12月31日之買賣成交案件作為本研究之樣本。
本研究先利用特徵價格模型以半對數(semi-log)作為分析迴歸估計模型，探討長期房價的趨勢變化，研究結果顯示，桃園區不動產在民國102年至110年相較於101年的房價分別成長19.04%、26.29%、32.26%、28.92%、31.74%、30.72%、35.48%、42.35%、52.48%是符合本研究預期結果；而中壢區於民國103年相較於101年的房價上升約29.17%對比桃園區同年度的上漲幅度更大，且波動程度較劇烈的年度在民國109年及110年，相較於101年上漲約44.39%及58.07%，其桃園區的配適度為85.89%，中壢區的配適度為81.25%，表示可有效解釋特徵價格模型會影響不動產價格之因素。其次利用異質性分析來了解桃園都會區不動產特徵價格模型的誤差項是否有異質性存在，結果顯示有異質性的問題，故透過加權迴歸式(FGLS)來修正異質性檢定，修正後的實證結果與OLS估計方法相比較，兩者自變數的估計係數方向為一致性，其顯著性結果也相同。而在房屋屬性之特徵價格的實證結果顯示，總樓層、建物面積、房間數、衛浴數、廳堂數、屋齡等，估計係數皆具有顯著水準，皆符合本研究之預期方向，與預期結果是一致性。由此可知，長期而言，房價確實呈現上漲趨勢。
;As Taiwan′s real estate has gone through many cycles of ups and downs for a long time, coupled with the narrow and densely populated environment, rapid social changes, and changes in demographic structure, national income has increased, and housing income has risen year by year, prompting the continuous rise in real estate, the purchase of houses by young people is heavier. Even if the central government continues to implement housing policy, the problem of high housing prices still exists. In order to understand the changes in long-term housing price trends, this study conducted a long-term housing price trend analysis of Taoyuan District and Zhongli District in Taoyuan City. In the discussion, the source of the collected information is the real estate transaction log-in inquiry service website of the Ministry of the Interior. During the period, the transaction cases from August 1, 101 to December 31, 110 were taken as the sample of this research.
This study first uses the hedonic price model to use semi-log as an analytical regression estimation model to explore the trend of long-term house prices. The growth rates of 19.04%, 26.29%, 32.26%, 28.92%, 31.74%, 30.72%, 35.48%, 42.35%, and 52.48% were in line with the expected results of this study; while the housing prices in Zhongli District increased in 2010 compared to 2010 Compared with Taoyuan District, about 29.17% increased by about 44.39% and 58.07% compared with 101, and the increase in Taoyuan District was larger in the same year, and the fluctuations were more severe in 109 and 110. Compared with 101, the proportion of Taoyuan District was 85.89 %, the matching degree of Zhongli District is 81.25%, which means that the hedonic price model can effectively explain the factors that affect the price of real estate. Secondly, the heterogeneity analysis was used to understand whether there was heterogeneity in the error term of the real estate hedonic price model in the Taoyuan metropolitan area. The results showed that there was a problem of heterogeneity. Therefore, the weighted regression (FGLS) was used to correct the heterogeneity test, and the revised empirical results Compared with the OLS estimation method, the estimated coefficient directions of the two independent variables are consistent, and the significance results are also the same. The empirical results of the hedonic price of housing attributes show that the estimated coefficients of total floors, building area, number of rooms, number of bathrooms, number of halls, and age of the house all have significant levels, which are in line with the expected direction of this research, and the expected results are consistency. It can be seen that in the long run, housing prices do show an upward trend. |
