| 摘要: | 1948年9月至1949年1月，國共三大戰役，國軍潰敗，蔣介石被迫下野，準備播遷來臺。與此同時，美國國務院、國安會、參謀首長聯席會議以及中情局，針對臺灣問題提出評估報告，一致認為臺灣戰略地位重要，除了國務院內部有爭議外，軍、情部門均主張美方不應放棄臺灣。其中，1949年3月14日中情局機密文件，研析臺灣問題最到位，並提出「臺灣地位未定論」。
針對臺灣問題的解決，美方內部先後提出軍事干預、軍經援助、自治、託管及軍事政變等一系列方案，美方的目的就是控制臺灣，不讓臺灣落入中共的手中。由於1949年2月14日《中蘇友好同盟互助條約》在莫斯科簽訂後，中蘇締結同盟反美。臺灣位於第一島鏈的樞紐位置，地緣戰略價值益形重要，美方內部各部門達成一致性的意見，保住臺灣。美方決定推動軍事政變方案，推翻蔣介石。
不料，1950年6月25日韓戰爆發，杜魯門總統以「臺灣地位未定論」為由，下令第七艦隊馳援臺海，恊防臺灣，軍事政變方案胎死腹中。蔣介石安然渡過難關，在臺灣穩住陣腳。
;From September 1948 to January 1949, China’s Communist Party had three major battles that resulted in the defeat of the Chinese army and forced Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek to flee China and relocate in Taiwan. During this time, the U.S. Department of State, the National Security Council (NSC) , the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCF), and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) issued assessments of the situation in Taiwan. While there was some controversy within the State Department, the military and the intelligence departments both advocated that the U.S. should not abandon Taiwan. They unanimously agreed that Taiwan′s strategic position was important. To date, the CIA′s classified document dated March 14, 1949, is the most accurate analysis of the situation in Taiwan and formed the “undetermined status of Taiwan” theory.
To deal with the political situation in Taiwan, the United States proposed a military intervention, military-economic assistance, autonomy, trusteeship, and military coup as possible solutions to prevent Taiwan from falling into the hands of the Chinese Communist Party. On February 14, 1949, China and the Soviet Union signed the Sino-Soviet Treaty of Friendship, Alliance and Mutual Assistance and entered into an alliance against the United States. Located in the pivotal position of the first island chain, Taiwan’s geostrategic value was of great importance. To protect their interests in the region, the United States decided to promote a military coup to overthrow Chiang Kai-shek.
On June 25, 1950, the Korean War broke out. President Harry S. Truman ordered the Seventh Fleet to help defend Taiwan on the grounds that “the status of Taiwan was not yet determined”, and the military coup to take possession of Taiwan was aborted. This decision to abort the military coup, allowed Chiang Kai-shek to rise to power and secure his position in Taiwan. |
