| 摘要: | 本研究蒐集107年至111年桃園市三大重劃區之實價登錄案例共計15,542筆，利用特徵價格模型，並以最小平方法且控制年份固定效果進行迴歸分析，以探討110年12月開始實施之最新選擇性信用管制政策，對桃園市三大重劃區之房價影響。本研究聚焦於政策實施後，對於桃園市三大重劃區：中正藝文(含藝文)特區、中路重劃區及八德擴大重劃區之房價影響；並探究前項影響是否因建物用途、及特定建物型態有所區別。實證結果顯示，首先，當僅控制年度效果，央行最新信用管制政策看似反而推升三大重劃區房價。其次，若加入控制政策與權狀含「住」建物之交互效果，就三區整體而言，央行最新信用管制政策顯著抑制三大重劃區房價。就個別重劃區來看，央行信用管制政策實施後，主要抑制中正藝文特區與八德重劃區權狀含「住」建物房價。最後，本研究進一步聚焦於政策對於前述兩大重劃區純住宅用途建物型態房價之影響。本研究的實證結果顯示，就中正藝文特區而言，央行最新信用管制政策主要抑制「華廈」與「透天厝」房價，對「住宅大樓」的影響次之；對八德重劃區而言，政策對不同建物型態房價的抑制效果依序為：「華廈」、「住宅大樓」、與「透天厝」房價。本研究認為，相同政策對於不同區域及建物型態的實施效果皆不同，或許是因為區域房價落差，抑或最新政策實施僅一年，政策效果未能完全顯示。本研究意涵在於央行前後實施多項打炒房政策皆未如預期，或許可以將貸款利率等因素納入考量，以增強政策實施力道。;In this study, I collect 15,542 housing-price registrations in the three major readjustment areas (i.e.,Yiwen , Zhonglu, and the Bade expanded areas) of Taoyuan City so as to investigate the impact of the latest selective credit controls on housing prices. The sample of this study covers property transactions from Jan 2018 to Dec 2022, in between the selective credit controls were implemented by the Central Bank in Dec 2021. Details regarding the latest credit controls are: for legal entities and natural persons who purchase to own their third residential property, the maximum loan-to-value ratio is reduced to 40%, which was effective immediately. A hedonic housing price model is employed in this study, where I conduct multiple regression analyses by using the ordinary least square method while controlling foe the annual fixed effect. I also differentiate the policy impacts for if properties are for residential uses. The empirical results are as follows. First, when I only control for the annual fixed effects, the latest credit control policy appears to further push up housing prices in the three readjustment areas. However, after also controlling for the interaction effects between the policy and the “residential” uses of properties, I find the latest credit control policy significantly suppresses housing prices in three major rezones in general. In addition, after conducting respective regressions on three major rezones, it shows that the latest credit controls mainly suppress housing prices with “residential use” in two areas, i.e., Yiwen and Bade rezoning areas only. Specifically, in the Yiwen area, the central bank′s latest credit controls mainly suppress the prices of “condominium” most, and then to those of “town house”, followed by those of “high-rise residential building”. Similarly, in the Bade rezoning area, the latest policy suppresses the prices of “condominium” to the greatest magnitude, while also negatively affect the prices of “high-rise residential building”, followed by those of “town house”. In conclusion, this study indicates that the latest credit controls exhibit different impacts on specific types of building in the three readjustment areas in Taoyuan City. This may due to inherent regional references, or simply because the latest policy has only been in place for about a year and thus the policy impacts are yet to be observed. This study also implies that although the Central Bank has implemented several arounds of credit controls, its policy impacts on housing prices are not as definite as expected. Therefore, other polices, such as an adjustment on mortgage rates, may also be considered to enhance the affordability of property prices in Taiwan. |
