運用粗和細網格精度參數搜尋週期為三年台灣二十公里深度內最強地震圓弧雙交叉進行強震預測;Prediction of strong earthquake by the SDICAE with depth within twenty kilometer searched in three year period by using coarse and fine meshes of precision parameters.

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Title:	運用粗和細網格精度參數搜尋週期為三年台灣二十公里深度內最強地震圓弧雙交叉進行強震預測;Prediction of strong earthquake by the SDICAE with depth within twenty kilometer searched in three year period by using coarse and fine meshes of precision parameters.
Authors:	林大海;Lin, Ta-Hai
Contributors:	土木工程學系
Keywords:	最強地震圓弧雙交叉;strongest double intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes
Date:	2024-07-26
Issue Date:	2024-10-09 14:47:01 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	本研究旨在探討將搜尋最強地震圓弧雙交叉的精度參數網格細分，是否能有效獲取更多最強地震圓弧雙交叉資料，並根據所獲得的資料，通過不同篩選方法，評估強震預測的效果。研究同時統計分析預測資料，分析影響預測結果的因素及其可能原因。研究結果顯示，細分精度參數網格確實能顯著增加最強地震圓弧雙交叉資料的獲取量，提升幅度達到80%。此外，本研究還探討了不同幾何參數對預測結果的影響，並發現特定篩選條件下的最強地震圓弧雙交叉在短天期強震預測中具有顯著效果，並且在篩選後，最強地震圓弧雙凸交叉的短天期（120天內）強震預測命中率達到86.6%（13/15），而最強地震圓弧凹凸交叉的短天期（127天內）強震預測命中率為58.3%（7/12），總體最強地震圓弧雙交叉的短天期（127天內）強震預測命中率為74.1%（20/27）。總結來說，本研究證實了將精度參數網格細分的可行性和有效性，以及在特定篩選條件下的最強地震圓弧雙交叉在短天期強震預測中具有顯著效果。 ;This study aims to explore whether subdividing the precision parameter grid for searching the strongest double intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes (SDICAE) can effectively acquire more SDICAE data. Based on the obtained data, the study evaluates the effectiveness of strong earthquake predictions using different screening methods. Additionally, the study statistically analyzes the geometry affecting the prediction results and their possible reasons. The results show that subdividing the precision parameter grid significantly increases the amount of data obtained for SDICAE, with an increase of up to 80%. Moreover, this study examines the impact of different geometric feature on the prediction results and finds that under specific screening conditions, SDICAE exhibits significant effectiveness in short-term strong earthquake predictions. After screening, the short-term (within 120 days) strong earthquake prediction hit rate of the strongest double convex intersection of circular arcs reaches 86.6% (13/15), while that of the strongest concave-convex intersection of circular arcs reaches 58.3% (7/12). Overall, the short-term (within 127 days) strong earthquake prediction hit rate of SDICAE is 74.1% (20/27). In summary, this study confirms the feasibility and effectiveness of subdividing the precision parameter grid and demonstrates that SDICAE under specific screening conditions has significant effectiveness in short-term strong earthquake predictions.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Civil Engineering] Electronic Thesis & Dissertation

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